The Cincinnati Reds’ Rotation Is Playoff Caliber

So far, I think the Reds are getting about what they expected out of Singer. Solid outings with a few great ones sprinkled in. The good news is he’s striking out more batters (10.13 K/9), but the bad news is he’s walking 3.80 per nine. Despite his walks, Singer is still pitching to a 3.38 xERA and 3.67 xFIP, which the Reds would take in a heartbeat.

I think Singer will settle in and get back to being more of a groundball pitcher. His groundball rate has been consistently 49% throughout his career and is currently sitting at 33.3%.

Singer has tinkered with his pitch mix since coming to Cincinnati, now utilizing a cutter at nearly 14% instead of a changeup to attack lefties. We have also seen his four-seamer jump about three inches of induced vertical break.

Will Singer be an All-Star? No, but he can be a reliable starter and one the Reds could unlock more with. The changes we have seen are promising, and once he gets back to inducing more groundballs, I think the consistency will stick.

Andrew Abbott – 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 16 K

Drawing conclusions from an 11-inning sample is hard, but so is not buying into what we have seen. Abbott has a 30% or higher whiff rate on three pitches with a new cutter and improved movement across the board. The high strikeouts could trend back to earth, but it’s not impossible that the increase could stick, to some degree.

Throughout the minors, Abbott comfortably struck out 13 per nine, which is the number he has achieved through his first two starts. In his rookie year, he was just below 10 K/9 before posting a 7.43 K/.9 last season. If he can be somewhere closer to his rookie year, the Reds have another lefty with plus projection.

Some players are exceptions to the rule. Abbott’s peripherals point towards regression, but after 258 big league innings of not seeing that regression, I think it’s fair to say he could be an outlier. Through 48 big league starts, Abbott has a 3.69 ERA and continues to improve.

Nick Martinez – 26.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 23 K

Nick Martinez has gotten out to a rough start. He’s struggled to make it through five innings and has allowed far too much contact. However, Martinez has strung together three straight successful seasons since returning from Japan. Last season, he pitched to a 3.10 ERA across 142.1 innings as both a starter and reliever.

Due to his track record, I’m not hitting the panic button. I have always preferred him in a bullpen role, and if he ends up there this season, I think he can still add value to the team.

Even the thought of a demotion to the ‘pen is premature. Martinez’s four-seamer has been tattooed to begin the season, which is uncharacteristic from previous years. His latest outing was arguably his best of the year; he gave up two runs over 5.2 innings, striking out four.

Let’s wait and see how the next few starts go.

Prospects and Depth

As you know, having five useful pitchers is not enough. Most teams will need to rely on seven or eight starters in order to get through a season. Even with Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson suffering long-term injuries, the Reds have depth.

The only depth piece we have seen this season is Carson Spiers. Of the bunch, he’s the pitcher that I am personally lowest on. He can eat some innings but does not have anything that really stands out or keeps hitters off balance.

Thirty-eight-year-old Wade Miley is coming off an injury and might be out of gas. We’ll need to wait and see, but at least he has a solid track record to fall back on, giving him a non-zero chance of providing some innings.

What gets me excited are the prospects. Lowder has pitched well throughout the minors, and his plus control gives him a baseline you are comfortable with. He’s going to be able to locate his pitches and limit walks, which combines well with his high groundball rate. He was effective enough in his first stint last season and should come back healthy sooner than later.

Burns, the Reds’ first-round selection from last season, is by far the highest upside arm in the system and one of the highest in all of baseball. After embarrassing hitters across three High-A starts, he was recently promoted to Double-A, which could track to a debut this season.

Just Baseball’s no. 35 prospect comes with a triple-digit fastball and frisbee slider. Double-A is usually the first true test for high-end arms, so we will wait and see how he performs. But, Burns has the stuff to move quickly and become an option later in the season.

Chase Petty, who the Reds acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, and Connor Phillips both have intrigue but need more development. I feel more confident in Petty finding a way to become an option than Phillips, but Phillips is on the 40-man roster. Regardless, as deep depth options, you can do worse than guys who have appeared on top 100 lists.

Reds Rotation: Final Thoughts

Cincinnati is not going head-to-head with the very best rotations in baseball, but they are trending in the right direction. Their starting staff has the talent to do their part to get the team to the playoffs. I trust Greene and the strides he’s made over the past year plus and think the difference makers could be the lefties.

Can Lodolo stay healthy and pitch to the level of what made him a first-rounder? Is Abbott unlocking a new and better version of himself? How these two perform will likely drastically change the ceiling, and floor, of the Reds’ rotation.

The Reds are in a good spot. Not great, but good and making strides. The offense is starting to come around, and their pitching has enough to make this a fun summer in Cincinnati.