The College Football Playoff Rankings Week T-1

According to CFP Committee chairperson Warde Manuel, it is the duty of those appointed to find the twelve best teams to fill out the bracket. Below is an educated guess at how the bracket would look this week along with the first four teams out of the bracket.

Top Twelve

1. Oregon Ducks (8-0)

The Ducks have three quality wins against Ohio State, Boise State, and Illinois. Their remaining schedule consists of games at Michigan, Maryland, at Wisconsin, and Washington. According to FPI, the Ducks have a 87.3% chance to make the playoff.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)

Georgia has the two best wins of any team with a neutral-site victory over Clemson to start the season and a win against Texas in Austin. The only thing keeping the Dawgs off the top line is a shootout loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa in Week 3. The remaining schedule is challenging with the annual game against Florida in Jacksonville, a trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss, and home dates against Tennessee, UMass, and Georgia Tech. FPI has Georgia with an 83.9% chance to make the playoff.

3. Miami Hurricanes (8-0)

Miami has needed every yard that Cam Ward has produced at QB - along with a few helpful calls from the officials - to stay unbeaten. The Hurricanes currently don’t have a win over a team that is ranked and don’t have a ranked team remaining on their schedule. If they enter the ACC Championship Game unbeaten there will be almost no way they won’t make the field even with a loss, a big factor in ESPN having them as an 89.6% chance to make the playoff.

4. BYU Cougars (8-0)

The Cougars currently lead the Big 12 and are one of two unbeaten teams in the conference. Due to the strength of the Big 10 and SEC, it will be difficult for the Big 12 to get more than one team in the field. The perception of the league is that it's inferior to the other Power 4 conferences. It will most likely come down to who wins the Big 12 Championship Game between BYU and Iowa State. The Cougars have a 57% chance to make the playoff.

5. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0)

Penn State is one of three undefeated teams atop the Big 10 standings (Indiana, Oregon) and has a win over a ranked Illinois along with a solid win against USC on the road. The Nittany Lions will face Ohio State on Saturday in what will be a game that will be their biggest test of the season. FPI gives Penn State an 84.1% chance to make the playoff.

6. Texas A&M Aggies (7-1)

The Aggies went from one of the First Four out of the playoff to firmly in the field with their come-from-behind victory over LSU. With two ranked victories against LSU and Missouri and a “quality loss” to Notre Dame to start the season, the Aggies are a good bet to make the CFP field although FPI only gives them a 47% chance to do so.

7. Tennessee Volunteers (6-1)

Tennessee had their biggest win of the season against Alabama. Other than a trip to Georgia, the Vols have a manageable schedule with home games against Kentucky, Mississippi State, and UTEP before ending the season at Vanderbilt. FPI gives them a 68% chance to make the playoff field.

8. Texas Longhorns (7-1)

Texas earned a big win on the road at Vanderbilt after giving the Commodores every opportunity to get back in the game and pull off the upset. The Longhorns will have the week off before hosting Florida on November 9. A road date with old Southwest Conference rival Arkansas follows the next week before a home game against Kentucky and the season finale at Texas A&M. Texas currently has a 75.8% chance to make the playoff according to FPI.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1)

According to the Blue-Chip Index - which measures the ratio highly ranked recruits to the total number of the roster (85 scholarships) - Ohio State has a roster made up of 90% blue chip prospects. It's the highest score of any team in college football. A close loss at Oregon is the best result this team has on its resume, which is why they are ranked so low in comparison to the AP Poll. A win against Penn State on the road this Saturday would catapult them up the rankings. Purdue will visit the Horseshoe next week followed by a trip to Northwestern. Indiana, who is the only other ranked team on the Buckeyes schedule, will come to Columbus for what will most likely be a game that decides one of the participants in the Big 10 championship game before Michigan comes to town to end the season. The Buckeyes have a 72.9% chance to make the playoff.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)

The Irish have three of the more impressive wins in the country against current SEC leader Texas A&M, previously unbeaten Navy, and a Louisville team that took Miami to the wire. Notre Dame has the week off followed by home games against Florida State and Virginia, a neutral site game against Army at Yankee Stadium, and a road test at USC to end the season. The Irish have a 59.6% of making the playoff field.

11. Indiana Hoosiers (8-0)

The Hoosiers are 8-0 and in first place in the Big 10 with four games to go. Indiana will travel to East Lansing to take on Michigan State this Saturday followed by a home game against Michigan. The biggest test of the season - and one that will likely decide if the Hoosiers make the 12-team field - is a road game against Ohio State before wrapping up the season against hapless Purdue. The Hoosiers have a 69% chance of making the playoff.

12. Boise State Broncos (6-1)

Much like Clemson, Boise State suffered an early season loss and has blown everyone out since then except for UNLV last Saturday. Unlike Clemson, the Broncos' relatively weak schedule won’t kill them if they win out and finish 11-1 and the highest-ranked team from the Group of 5. The schedule is manageable with home games against San Diego State and Nevada before back-to-back road games against San Jose State and Wyoming. The Broncos will finish the regular season at home against Oregon State where a win would almost assure them of a spot in the playoff. FPI gives Boise State a 59.9% chance to make the field of 12.

First Four Out

1. Iowa State Cyclones (8-0)

Iowa State needs to win the Big 12 to get the automatic bid to the playoff unless there is chaos and several teams from the Big 10 and SEC lose multiple games. The Cyclones have a 46.1% chance to make it in according to FPI.

2. Clemson Tigers (6-1)

Since an opening weekend loss to Georgia, the Tigers have looked like a different team blowing out everyone else on their schedule so far. The caveat to that is the teams that they have been dominating aren’t that good. As such, Clemson doesn’t have a “signature” win on their resume. The Tigers will host Louisville on Saturday before back-to-back road games against Virginia Tech and current No. 18 Pitt. Clemson will close out the 2024 regular season with home games against The Citadel and South Carolina. FPI has the Tigers at 31.8% to make the playoff due to the relative weakness of the schedule.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)

A tough schedule is keeping the Tide’s playoff hopes alive as they have dropped two games before the month of November for the first time since 2007. An early season win against Georgia is a major feather in their cap and a close loss to Tennessee isn’t a death knell. Alabama will have the opportunity to play themselves into the field with a game at LSU, followed by a visit from FCS Mercer before a road game at Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl against Auburn at home. With a little luck and some chaos, the Tide might even find themselves in Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.

4. Kansas State Wildcats (7-1)

A loss at BYU is the only thing that is keeping the Wildcats out of the field of 12. Kansas State is in the same position as Iowa State and BYU in that they need to win the conference to guarantee a spot in the playoff or root for chaos and hope teams ahead of them lose. Games at Houston and home against Arizona State and Cincinnati aren’t going to move the meter for the selection committee. The season finale against Iowa State will determine who goes to the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats have a 39% chance to make the playoff according to FPI.

As it stands now, the 12-team field will be comprised of four teams from the Big 10 (Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana), four teams from the SEC (Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, and Tennessee), the ACC champion (Miami), the Big 12 champion (BYU), a Group of 5 representative (Boise State), and an independent (Notre Dame). There are a multitude of different scenarios too numerous to list that will affect the final bracket, but a few are obvious: Do the Big 10 and SEC teams beat up on each other and produce a multitude of 2- and 3-loss teams? How much will the committee weigh strength of schedule against wins and losses? Would a multiple loss Big 10 or SEC team get in over a 1-loss Big 12 or ACC team that isn’t the conference champion?

All of these questions will be answered as the teams fight it out on the field and the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings are revealed.