The Offseason Trade the Texas Rangers Might Already Regret

Gore, a former first-round pick, was 22-37 with the Nationals from 2023-25. He earned an All-Star berth last season but finished 5-15 with a 4.17 ERA. He built his reputation by overpowering hitters. He punched out 517 hitters in Washington, with at least 151 strikeouts in each season.

The Rangers liked the fit. They didn't have a powerful left-hander and the belief was that on a better team, Gore’s overall numbers would look better. But after seven games, those numbers look less than ideal.

He is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in seven starts. He’s on track to have the highest ERA of his career. He’s struck out 48 hitters in 40 innings, so he’s punching out hitters at his career average rate per nine innings. But there are also worrisome numbers.

Control has been an issue for Gore. His 21 walks lead the staff and at 4.7 walks per nine innings, it would be his worst rate for a full season. He's walked at least three hitters in five of his seven starts, including each of his last three. He also walked six hitters against the Athletics on April 14.

That has had a domino effect in a couple of areas. First, Gore has reached six complete innings just once this season. He's also fallen short of starting the fifth inning twice. He's allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four games and in five of his seven starts.

Second, there is his pitch count. Through seven starts he’s tossed 740 pitches. He’s averaging 18.5 pitchers per inning so far. That’s one pitch more per inning than a year ago. It may not seem like much of a difference. But that pitch count is part of what is preventing him from giving the bullpen more coverage.

The question is whether this is an aberration or a trend? As one might expect, he has a great strikeout rate per Statcast of 27.3%, which is in the 81st percentile. But his walk rate (11.9%), his barrel rate (11.3%), his hard-hit rate (43.4%) and his ground ball rate (36.8%) are all below in the 28th percentile or below.

From a data perspective, he’s still punching hitters out. But in between strikeouts he’s handing out too many free passes, giving up too much hard contact and not inducing enough ground balls.

If one were to look back at his 2025 Statcast numbers in the same areas, one would find similar percentages, including a high strikeout rate (27.2%, 80th percentile) and low percentile rates for walks, barrel rate, hard hit rate and ground ball rate. All were in the 30th percentile or below.

Surely the Rangers knew this when they traded for him. They likely had a plan to help Gore boost those low Statcast numbers. But thus far, his performance hasn't translated to a change from last year to this year. It's still early in his tenure with Texas, but if this is the Gore that the Rangers consistently get, this may be a trade that leads to regret depending upon how those new Nationals perform when they reach the Majors.