The Padres Need Manny Machado To Heat Back Up

The San Diego Padres are going to October. That much is certain. What’s less certain is whether their franchise cornerstone, Manny Machado, will be ready when the lights get brighter.

Machado closed out his 2025 regular season with one of the coldest stretches of his Padres tenure. The timing couldn’t be worse. Instead of sharpening his swing heading into the playoffs, Machado looked out of rhythm, out of timing, and most worryingly out of answers.

What makes this downturn even more jarring is how good he was earlier in the year. Through the first half, Machado ranked among the top 25 hitters in baseball in both fWAR and wRC+, anchoring a Padres lineup that often leaned on him in critical moments.

As recently as July, he posted a 176 wRC+, his best month of the season and a reminder of how dangerous he can be when locked in.

The decline can be traced back to the start of August. In his last 50 games to close out the regular season, he had a .215 batting average with an OPS of .629. Not ideal. And this month, it has been worse with a .207 batting average.

The Padres don’t have the luxury of being patient with Machado anymore. Their captain looks lost at the plate. But after going 2-for-2 with a homer in the regular season finale on Sunday, perhaps that’s just what he needed to catch fire before the ball club kicks off its wild-card matchup with the Cubs on Tuesday.

What Is Machado Struggling With?

The numbers haven’t been kind. Heading into play on Sunday, he was batting just .150 against fastballs and .161 against breaking pitches in September. The contact he was making hasn’t been loud either: his average exit velocity has dipped by 5.1 mph against fastballs and 4.4 mph against breaking balls since August.

For a hitter who has long prided himself on punishing mistakes, those drops point to a swing that simply isn’t there.

Even more alarming is his swing-and-miss rate. Against fastballs in the strike zone this month, Machado is whiffing 29.1% of the time. That’s nearly one in three pitches over the plate—prime hittable pitches—that he isn’t connecting with.

Another factor could be wear and tear. Machado has logged over 8,000 career plate appearances and entered this season with a little under 1,900 games played. At age 33, it’s natural to wonder if fatigue plays a role in his late-season dip.

His hard-hit percentage has dropped by 21.9 points since July, and his sprint speed is at its lowest since Statcast began tracking in 2015, an indicator that his legs might not be under him the way they once were.

While rest would be the right answer for someone showing signs of struggle, the Padres couldn’t afford that with the up-and-down nature of their season. Playing through those off days has been taking a toll on Machado.

Regardless, for someone who’s been the heartbeat of this lineup for years, this is concerning to see right before the postseason begins.

Possible Changes

Unfortunately, Machado doesn’t have the luxury of a month to tinker and find his stride; he needs to get back to being himself right now.

The key lies in one thing: hitting the fastball. At this stage of the season, mechanical overhauls aren’t realistic, but an adjustment in approach could make the difference. For instance, he might consider sliding deeper into the box or cheating to the pitch more often.

The numbers suggest a shift is needed. In September, Machado is pulling fastballs at just 15.4%, his lowest rate of the year. Yet against offspeed pitches, he’s thriving, hitting .400 with a staggering 88.9% hard-hit rate.

That contrast signals an opportunity. While he may already be working on it, leaning further into a pull-side approach against fastballs could unlock the results the Padres need from him down the stretch.