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The Surprising Yankees Starter Predicted to Have the Biggest Impact

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kristie Ackert | Last updated Jan 27, 2025 12:31 PM ET

The New York Yankees' rotation features a Cy Young winner in ace Gerrit Cole and a Rookie of the Year in Luis Gil, but neither was predicted to lead the staff this season. According to FanGraph’s Steamer projections, newcomer Max Fried will have the best season of the Yankees pitchers.

Steamer predicts Fried will post a 3.36 ERA over 173 innings with 165 strikeouts and a 3.3 WAR.

"The left-hander is projected by Steamer to be a highly dependable workhorse," MLB.com’s David Adler wrote. He's not projected for as many strikeouts as Cole or Rodón, but his projected ERA is easily the lowest among the Yankees starters. The main takeaway, though, is that, with Fried, the Yankees look like they have one of the deepest rotations in the Majors.”

The Yankees signed Fried to an eight-year, $218 million deal as their first move after losing free-agent slugger Juan Soto to the New York Mets. The 30-year-old is coming off a successful eight-year stretch with the Braves in which he went 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA, including two top-five finishes in the NL Cy Young race.

Still, Fried came to the Yankees looking to get better. At his introductory press conference, Fried cited the Yankees' track record of helping pitchers tweak their repertoire and find success. Pitching coach Matt Blake, who helped Clay Homes go from middling reliever to elite closer (and now potential starter) thinks there is room for Fried to grow.

"He's had a lot of success, but then as we looked at him, there's a level of improvability going forward, just with how the arsenal can be crafted and pulled apart," Blake told the New York Post. "There's some room to evolve with us.

"We like that.”

According to the Steamer projections, Cole is expected to finish with a 3.93 ERA and a 3.1 WAR, and Gil is expected to finish with a 4.19 ERA and 1.8 WAR.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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