The True Talent Evaluation of Jarren Duran

Ironically, 2025 was Duran’s first year hovering around league average in pulled fly ball rate, and it was his worst full season as a big leaguer. That said, there were some positives in an otherwise down offensive campaign for him.

He hit the ball harder than ever before, drove the ball better, and did so as consistently as ever. While the strikeouts jumped from 21.8% to 24.3, he stayed within striking distance of his contact numbers of 2024.

Weaknesses:

Not to poo-poo an 8.6% walk rate, as it also marks his fourth straight season improving in that facet of hitting, but Duran isn’t enough of an on-base threat to guarantee a first-inning plate appearance on a contender.

For his career, he’s a .328 on-base guy. Not bad, and only two points off the pace for a leadoff hitter since 2021, but he’s 10th among Red Sox — minimum of 500 plate appearances — in that same span.

Now, the mix of energy, speed, and power creates this notion that Duran acts as the engine for the offense. The one downside to that is he is a .285 on-base guy in the first inning since 2024. He makes his hay later in the ballgame, and that’s fine, but the tone he’s setting for games lately is out No. 1.

On the topic of being an engine, it’s tough to build a sustainable, well-oiled machine when your engine has platoon concerns. In 2023, Duran was passable against southpaws with a 100 wRC+ and a .749 OPS. He dropped off in 2024 but remained passable with an 88 wRC+.

Unfortunately, he took an even steeper drop off in 2025, posting a 61 wRC+ and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 209 plate appearances.

Another weakness of Duran’s game is the trifecta of chase, whiff, and Strike 3 in his game.

As more of a guy who can hit for power than a true power hitter, he does too much of all three. Even in 2024, where he was around 50th percentile for all three, it created several instances of prolonged struggle for Duran and the Red Sox offense.

It’s not groundbreaking analysis to say a team struggles when its best players struggle, but when your most valuable player is conducive to prolonged slumps, it’s bad for the whole operation. To be frank, it’s why there’s increasing validity in the “old school” argument that putting the ball in play in October makes for winning baseball.

Duran is a speed guy who can hit for power, he should have multiple types of swings pending the situation.

True Talent:

It feels weird to say someone who’s 29 is still developing, but it seems like Duran fits that mold. Tapping into his power more and using his speed as a secondary weapon may prolong his window as a player.

But let’s remind people that he had a “down year” in 2025 yet popped for 3.9 fWAR and a 111 wRC+ in 157 games. Against righties, he posted a 133 wRC+ with 56 extra-base hits.

It’s hard to see a world where Duran becomes a good hitter against the weak side of the platoon, but he doesn’t have to be. Considering he underplayed his xwOBA by 30 points against them in 2025, there’s reason to believe he’s closer to his 2024 self.

All in, Duran’s true talent as a hitter is a fringe-120 wRC+ bat with 70-XBH potential annually.

The Defensive Profile of Jarren Duran

Strengths:

Duran’s speed does wonders for bailing him out of trouble out there. Generally speaking, he gets decent jumps, and his burst makes up for any inefficiencies in his routes.

Overall, he tied for 25th among 93 qualified outfielders in jump this season, tied with Michael Harris II. He also ranked higher than Steven Kwan and Fernando Tatis Jr.

He even tied for 36th in plays rated at two-plus stars in difficulty; nothing to write home about, but still solid.

Duran also has an incredibly accurate throwing arm. Among 118 qualified outfielders, he tied for fifth in extra bases run value on Statcast. While some of that is attributed to playing in front of a shallow left-field wall, him having an erratic throwing arm would still rear its ugly head if had one.

He’s an imperfect defender but even regressed from 2024 he’s markedly better than pre-2024 days.

Weaknesses:

It’s weird to say this, but his speed sometimes also interferes with his ability to track down the ball.

As mentioned before, he’s an inefficient route-runner, and the bursts and jumps he gets help make up for those routes a lot, they also can create problems. Often described as running like a man “angry at the ground,” Duran loses control sometimes and overruns the ball, or drops it altogether.

He’s a bottom-15 route-runner in baseball, according to Statcast. Ironically, he’s rated as a better one than potential Platinum Glove winner and teammate Ceddanne Rafaela. However, the main problem with Duran’s glove is, well, the glove.

Duran’s one of the best athletes in baseball, there’s no denying that. He does, however, have to lean on his athleticism more than he should because of initial mistakes. If he could button up the routine mistakes, he should return to 2024 form, or at least close to it.

Reminder: Duran had a 23-DRS, 10-OAA season last year. In 2025, it was 9 DRS and -2 OAA; still solid, but dramatically decreased.

True Talent:

I think the 2025 season perfectly encapsulates Duran’s defensive ability as a left fielder. Should the Red Sox move him and he plays center field elsewhere, it’s possible there’s an uptick in defensive production.

Right now, it’s hard to see someone with his profile as a ball hawk sustaining success. It’ll become a lot more of a “make or miss” game for the 29-year-old unless he can tidy up the routes. Some years he’ll make more plays than others, and 2024 was definitely one of those seasons.

The Baserunning Profile of Jarren Duran

Strengths:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: his speed is a strength. While he ran at half-a-foot-per-second slower in 2025 than 2024, he still was 91st percentile for sprint speed.

What makes Duran dangerous as a runner is the fear of him taking off. He stole 10 fewer bases this past season yet still managed 7.2 baserunning runs above average (BsR).

Perhaps more related to his hitting than baserunning is his aggressive nature out of the box, but it felt slightly dialed back than in years past.

As a threat, he’s one of the biggest weapons in baseball.

Weaknesses:

There aren’t many weaknesses to Duran’s baserunning profile, but one is the volume of stolen base attempts.

He’s an imposing threat on first base, bare minimum, but use that more to your advantage.

In fairness, he spent almost half the year hitting in front of Rafael Devers, so you don’t want to risk getting caught stealing with him aboard. But 30 total registered stolen base attempts from Duran in a lineup that was mid-tier in home runs feels light.

Maybe that was organizationally imposed; maybe Duran was preserving his body. Regardless, he needs to be in motion more in 2026.

In addition to volume, his efficiency dipped slightly in 2025. Though, I’d chalk that more up to the volume as well, as the success rate is negligible.

True Talent:

Since 2023, Duran is the third-most valuable qualified runner in baseball, and the eye test matches that. He creates havoc on the basepaths whether he’s moving or not.

When he’s rolling at the plate, it creates even more mayhem for the opposition.

As mentioned earlier, he turns 30 next September; with that likely comes a slight decline in willingness to play like a bat out of Hell. Though, I don’t believe it needs to. Obviously, Duran isn’t in the same stratosphere as the late, great Rickey Henderson, but the Hall of Famer continued swiping 30-plus bags deep into his 30s.

Duran doesn’t have to target 60 steals, but there’s nothing preventing him from stealing 30 bases a year.

Final Verdict

To serve as a reminder to the kind of player Duran is, people refer to his 2025 season as a disappointment. As a disappointment, he led the position player group in wins above replacement.

It’s hard to tell what kind of hitter Duran will be as he ages. Often heard is the comparison between him and former Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury battled injuries and inconsistent play his entire career, with one truly elite year in 2011.

Duran has a more consistent power stroke, with less bat-to-ball skill than Ellsbury, so unsure that’s the best comparison. The player that comes to mind is another former Red Sox, but more known for his time in Cleveland, Grady Sizemore.

Like Ellsbury, Sizemore battled injury and consistency issues as he aged, but his profile matches Duran to near-perfection. The only real difference is the former Guardian broke in at 21, while Duran didn’t fully until he was 27.

Regardless, if not for Boston, Duran brings the kind of skillset that fits on any roster in need of outfield help. Even if not as a leadoff hitter, there’s a reason several teams heavily covet his services.

I expect Duran to don a new uniform in 2026 and beyond, even if the Red Sox can logistically make it work. However, he’s not an easily replaceable asset, no matter his imperfections.