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Apr 14, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) reacts after an at bat in the fourth inning against the New York Mets at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Twins vs. fastballs: A tragic love story with no contact

Originally posted on Minnesota Twins on SI
By Joe Nelson | Last updated Apr 15, 2025 11:52 AM ET

At 5-12, the Minnesota Twins are quickly turning away fans and falling behind in the standings. The pitching has been a bit inconsistent, but the bigger issue is a horrible offensive showing that has the Twins batting .203 as a team, and a woeful .274 on-base percentage.

How 'bout them Yankees? They're batting .261 with a .343 OBP. Why compare the Twins to the Yankees? Because it helps paint the picture for how far behind the curve the Twins are at the plate this season.

Putrid is a fair description of Twins hitters through 17 games. Here's what the Twins have done and where it ranks among the 30 teams in Major League Baseball.

113 hits (23)
29 doubles (8)
12 homers (24)
44 walks (25)
139 strikeouts (20)
.203 AVG (27)
.274 OBP (27)
.327 SLG (25)
7.9% barrel rate (19)
39.6% hard hit rate (20)
88.1 mph average exit velocity (28)
27.5% whiff rate (25)
.230 expected batting average (25)
.248 batting average on balls in play (27)
.347 wxOBACON (29)

That last one is important as it is a metric that, according to Statcast, "focuses on the expected weighted on-base average when a batter makes contact." It removes strikeouts, walks and hit-by-pitches, providing a look at what a batter's productivity is solely based on batted balls.

What's kind of wild to think about is that Minnesota is 13th in the majors with a .256 batting average with runners in scoring position. The problem is that they've only had 146 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, which ranks 19th.

Perhaps the most glaring issue for the Twins was pointed out Monday night by Parker Hageman, a baseball statistics guru who follows the team closely. Hageman points out that Minnesota hitters are slashing .195/.215/.277 against fastballs. The league average, at the time of Hageman's post, was .247/.339/.403.

#mntwins hitters have had brutal results vs fastballs:

mlb average: .247/.339/.403
twins: .195/.215/.277

if they don't pull fastballs, they are hitting .200 on balls in play, lowest in baseball.

they have only hit 3 home runs vs fastballs. the yankees have hit 25.
— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) April 15, 2025

Which Twins are the worst against fastballs this season?

Christian Vazquez and Mickey Gasper are both batting .000 against heaters, though to be fair they're not everyday players and they've seen fastballs in a combined 13 plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.

The everyday players who are getting torched by fastballs are Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton and Eddy Julien.

Wallner hasn't been awful like the names above him in the chart, but he's still swinging and missing at an absurdly high rate.

Meanwhile, there are only three players on the team who have hit fastballs well. Ty France, the reigning American League Player of the Week, is hitting .294 and hasn't been struck out by a fastball yet this season. Harrison Bader is hitting .364 against heaters, and Jose Miranda, who was optioned to the minors after an embarrassing baserunning blunder on Sunday, was hitting .375 against the 33 fastballs he'd seen.

Buxton sticks out like a sore thumb with his 40% strikeout rate against fastballs. What's worse is that he can't hit other pitches, either.

He's been worse on the 40 changeups he's seen this season, whiffing on 60% of them and striking out on 57.1% of them. Buxton has seen 14 curveballs and he's struck out on 66.7% of them. He's seen 21 cutters and struck out on 40% of them. He's seen 14 curveballs and he's struck out on 66.7% of them. Forty percent of the 21 cutters he's seen have led to a strikeout.

Did you pick up on the fact that the guys struggling the most against fastballs are the guys most commonly hitting first, second, third and fourth in the batting order? If the guys can't hit, why isn't manager Rocco Baldelli moving France and Bader up in the order?

Maybe it's time for some changes...