
There are several players who have shown they can impact these Minnesota Twins, but Royce Lewis is one of the most decisive.
Just when the team was playing its best baseball between June and July, Lewis was hot at the plate. He hit eight home runs during that stretch and drove in 24 runs, helping the Twins play to a 33-23 record.
Since the beginning of August, Lewis has declined offensively in a concerning way. His power has disappeared, especially over his last 21 games, when he has gone 86 plate appearances without a home run.
During that stretch, he has taken just three walks and struck out 22 times, more than his hits (19). Opponents are changing part of their repertoire against Lewis, and his aggressiveness at the plate is moving him away from his most productive approach.
Lewis is not entirely to blame for the inconsistency in the lineup and the Twins’ losses, but during this prolonged power slump, the team has gone 8-13. They have fallen 4.0 games out of the Wild Card race, the most dangerous point as we enter the final month of the season.
Unlike in the first half of the season, Lewis has been seeing fewer fastballs since Aug. 7.
The opposition’s adjustment makes sense, as Lewis has posted his highest whiff rate of the month (41.4%) against breaking pitches. That adjustment is also related to his improvement against fastballs, where his swings and misses have decreased by 13.8%, while his xBA has improved from .272 to .326. Another key point here is that pitchers have especially reserved the slider to attack Lewis in two-strike counts.
Now, let’s look at Lewis’ problem from another perspective: where his swing is becoming more vulnerable against fastballs and, specifically, sliders.
As you can see, even during his worst stretch of the second half, Lewis’ swing remains lethal against fastballs and in the inner parts of the zone. The most pressing problems appear when he tries to hit pitches in the upper part of the zone and on the outer edge within the strike zone. His swing-and-miss rates against pitches located outside the strike zone are extremely high, but it is important to keep in mind that Lewis has not seen the highest volume of pitches in several of those zones.
A good way for Lewis to get out of this slump is to improve his plate discipline. We know his aggressiveness is a natural part of who he is as a hitter. However, if he wants to begin changing this story, plate discipline is crucial, especially against an adjustment from pitchers that is bringing more breaking pitches his way.
If Lewis has something working in his favor, it is that he is not easy to dominate in high-pressure situations. In High Leverage, he is hitting .275/.388/.425, with a .813 OPS and a 128 wRC+. When Minnesota needs him most, Lewis has been consistently productive. So it is crucial for the team that he can wake up and regain his rhythm to keep competing down the final stretch of the season.
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