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Although we've concluded our series breaking down the individual player projections of the 2025 Arizona Diamondbacks, some appear to have more expectations set on them than others.
The projections are a composite average of ZiPS and Steamer, prorated to our own playing time estimate. Often, these types of projections expect a heavy regression to the mean, and weight recent seasons more heavily than others.
For that reason, projections can tend to get a bit skewed. While it's reasonable to expect regression to some degree, these three hitters seem to be the most likely to outperform their expecations.
OF/1B Pavin Smith
The projection: .248/.334/.409, .743 OPS, 14 HR, 0.9 aWAR in 431 PA
Pavin Smith is one of the bigger question marks in the lineup, but he certainly showed that he can hit at a major league level in 2024.
He did only get 158 plate appearances, and the vast majority were against right-handed pitchers, so it's easy to look at his excellent .270/.348/.547 slash last season and get the wrong idea.
But the truth is that his projections are low for a player who just put forward a season like that, all other factors notwithstanding.
The Diamondbacks are likely looking for a right-handed bat to platoon at the DH role. If they do so, Smith will still see an increased opportunity, but will be mostly protected from southpaws.
Similarly to Joc Pederson's excellent 2024, if Smith is afforded the situation that Pederson was, there's no doubt he can surpass the modest projections set out for him.
Obviously, Smith's numbers could see a sharp decrease in 2025, especially if he is asked to face left-handed pitching more frequently. But even seeing some regression from the lefty could still allow him to beat his projections.
A .248 average isn't much to overcome, and considering how he managed a .547 slug last season, dropping nearly 150 points in that category seems unlikely - unless, of course, he's expected to be the full-time DH. But if he's protected even slightly, Smith could have another big year.
INF Blaze Alexander
The projection: .229/.299/.344, .643 OPS, 3 HR, 0.2 aWAR in 182 PA
When dealing with a young hitter - one who is likely to see a smaller sample size - it's easy to assume severe regression or general underperformance.
But with Blaze Alexander, the issue was never truly his bat. Yes, it did start to cool off at the major and minor league levels in 2024, but he came in quite hot, slashing .313/.405/.531 after his first full month.
That fell off quickly, but even a very poor end to Alexander's season still saw him sitting at .247/.321/.343. That slash isn't anything to write home about, but it's still notably higher than what he's projected for in 2025 in a similar number of plate appearances.
Alexander's bat can play at the major league level, especially against left-hand pitching. Against southpaws, he slashed .297/.373/.446, good for an .819 OPS.
Obviously it's impossible to fully protect him from righties, but considering the somewhat limited playing opportunity in the infield, he could conceivably get some platoon-specific looks in 2025 if the D-backs don't add another bat.
At any rate, Alexander's defense will be the key to watch. His poor defense earned him a -4 Fielding Run Value due to his four errors, which was the key factor in his being sent down.
If the young infielder can steady his defense to even an average level, that will provide a boost to his aWAR, while also likely earning him more playing time and opportunities at the plate.
If Alexander can focus somewhat more on left-hand pitching, while playing improved defense, he could easily overcome an extremely low projection.
OF Corbin Carroll
The projection: .259/.347/.462, .809 OPS, 26 HR, 4.6 aWAR in 685 PA
It's been written about in great lengths. 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll's 2024 season was one to forget, until it wasn't.
Somehow, the speedy outfielder turned a .186/.269/.273 slash on May 25 into a .231/.322/.428 season, with 22 homers to go with it.
His projection actually doesn't seem to think he'll struggle nearly as much. While not necessarily superstar-level, his projected slash is actually quite reasonable, perhaps even generous considering how much Carroll struggled in 2024.
But the truth is, Carroll's 2024 results were a bit of an anomaly. His BABIP was a dismal .256, as plenty of well-struck balls went for outs.
But from July on to the end of the season, he slashed an immense .250/.339/.549, good for a .889 OPS, while his BABIP remained unbelievably low, at .252.
It's easy to look at a projected .809 OPS and wonder if it's greedy to expect much more out of Carroll in 2025. But truly, outside of an extended slump, with poor luck sprinkled in, those projected numbers are nothing compared to what Carroll has shown he's capable of.
Even as a young rookie in 2022, with a sky-high 27.0% strikeout rate in a smaller sample size, Carroll managed to generally outperform the same numbers that are projected for 2025.
While these projections will heavily weight 2024's down year, it's absolutely not out of the question to see a slug north of .500 and an OPS above the projected .809.
With any amount of increased batted ball luck, paired with his incredible speed, a .259 average could be easily smashed, so long as he doesn't enter 2025 in a similar slump.
The projection isn't unreasonable, but Carroll has defied reason many times before.
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Arizona Diamondbacks 2025 Player Projections Links Hub
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TODAY'S BEST
Rafael Devers had telling comment about playing first base
Rafael Devers played first base for the San Francisco Giants for the first time on Tuesday, and his quote about playing the field likely will not sit well with Boston Red Sox fans. Devers said after Tuesday’s game that he prefers playing in the field as opposed to serving as a designated hitter. “It keeps me active. It keeps my head out of just thinking about the next at-bat,” Devers said, via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle. “I’d rather be on the field than in the cage hitting all the time and thinking about the next at-bat.” Devers, of course, refused to play first base for the Red Sox after they asked him to. He felt disrespected after they moved him off third base to accommodate Alex Bregman, and thought the team went back on its word by later asking him to play first. To Red Sox fans, if Devers is best playing in the field and playing first would have helped the team, it will be baffling why he did not just do it when that would seemingly have been a preferable outcome for all involved. Devers went 2-for-5 in Tuesday’s 9-0 win over the Atlanta Braves, driving in a run in his first appearance at first base. It remains unclear how frequently the Giants plan to use him at the position, but the team might take note of these comments.
Christian Watson's new health update from Packers gives fans a clearer picture of the situation
There isn't a specific date for wide receiver Christian Watson to return to the field. He won't practice throughout training camp, and will possibly start the regular season on the physically unable to perform list, missing the first four games of the year. But the Green Bay Packers are pleased with his recovery process. Before the first day of training camp practice on Wednesday, general manager Brian Gutekunst talked about Watson and how he's looking less than seven months after tearing his ACL against the Chicago Bears in January. "[Christian Watson looks] Great. Yeah, he's kind of a freak, you know," Gutekunst mentioned. "He did a run test the other day and looked great. Again, it's an ACL, and it's his second one, so we're going to take our time with it. I'm sure there's going to be a time where he's really pressing to get out there, but he's doing great." PUP rules At this moment, Christian Watson is on the active/PUP list, which means he can be activated at any point before the regular season. If he's to miss the first month of the season anyway, the Packers can move him to the reserve/PUP list on cutdown day, so he wouldn't count against the initial 53-man roster—and would miss at least the first four games, against the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, Cleveland Browns, and Dallas Cowboys. The Packers could open his 21-day practice window following that, and after three weeks the team had to make a final call about activating him or moving him to the injured reserve. However, the team is not forced to open the practice window after three weeks, and Watson could spend more time on the PUP. Usually, the Packers tend to wait ten months for players with ACL injuries to return, putting the wide receiver in position to play in early November. There is a curious extra element that applies to Watson, even though it's an unlikely one. Because he is in the final year of his deal, if Watson spends the entire season on PUP and is never activated, his contract will toll to 2026. That means he would be under contract for next year, with the same $1.965 million base salary. Players who weren't on the field on Wednesday: LB Quay Walker (ankle) WR Christian Watson (knee) CB Micah Robinson (knee) EDGE/LB Collin Oliver (hamstring) RB Amar Johnson (hamstring) G John Williams (back) C Elgton Jenkins (back)
Five reasons the NHL's new 84-game schedule is a bad idea
“The NHL schedule is just too short!” said no one ever. In early July, the NHL and NHL Players’ Association ratified a four-year extension to their collective bargaining agreement through September 2030. The deal was rightfully praised as a win for the sport. After decades of bad blood and the lingering threat of labor stoppages, an extension — that kicks in for the 2026-27 season — arriving more than a year early speaks volumes on the health of the players’ relationship with the league. Amid the good vibes, it was easy to discount one small change with potentially significant consequences: an increase from 82 to 84 games in the NHL’s regular season. We’re diving into the league’s new schedule and considering the unforeseen impact of adding more games to a packed calendar. Here are five key reasons this subtle shift is an ill-timed cash grab by hockey’s power brokers. History of the schedule Before we get into the future schedule, it’s important to understand the league’s past. The visual below shows the maximum number of combined games a team has potentially been able to play across the regular season and postseason since expansion. Forcing more games out of the talent is far from a new idea. With the exception of abbreviated lockout and pandemic calendars — excluded above — the NHL’s schedule length had been the same since the mid-1990s. Teams currently play 82 regular-season games, while the Stanley Cup finalists can play another 28 if their four best-of-seven series go the maximum. That’s 110. The league briefly dabbled with an 84-game season schedule in 1992-93 and 1993-94 where teams played a pair of neutral-site games to serve as feelers for future expansion. It didn’t stick. For 30 years, everyone seemed to agree — the season was long enough. 82 games wedged into six-plus months and four grueling playoff rounds was plenty. Plus preseason games, All-Star weekends, and international events. Every cent had been squeezed, every sweat drop had been left on the ice. Until now… ✅ Arguments for Change Prior to picking apart the new 84-game version, the reasons supporting the additional games deserve their day in court. And there are reasons, sort of. It balances the schedule. 84 games ensures each team plays its division rivals exactly four times. Argument against: Ah, competitive balance. It’s a nice idea. But let’s be serious. If anyone had the slightest interest in fairness, the current playoff format would be scrapped. The NHL’s division-based bracket often features first-round series between elite teams. The format doesn’t reseed either, leading to easier postseason paths for weaker teams. We can’t pretend a balanced schedule matters. The preseason has been reduced by two games. You may be screaming that this is all noise as the new CBA has offset the preseason by two games — a net-zero change in game count. Argument against: Established veterans mostly sit out the exhibition calendar anyway, reluctantly drawing in for two or three low-intensity games to appease fans and shake off rust. Two intra-division games tacked onto the schedule don’t offset meaningless autumn skates that top players mostly watch from home. There is money to be made. Money is the only (real) reason for adding to the schedule. Two extra divisional matches sell more tickets, TV ads and draft beer. The owners and players share equally in any new hockey-related revenue. Argument against: Sure, 84 regular-season games generates more dollars than 82 games. So would 86 games. Or 100 games. A postseason play-in round would create “must-watch” games too. But where does this line of thinking end? Everyone signed off on the change. While we’re not privy to the details on whether scheduling was a contentious issue, both the NHL and NHLPA bilaterally agreed from negotiations. Argument against: The NFL added one game in 2021 to create a 17-game schedule. Many players still hate it. There’s now buzz of an 18th game. While money talks, sometimes leadership needs to save the players from themselves. ❌ Why 84 games is a bad idea The new CBA had its chance to prove to us more games is good for hockey. It hasn’t. Let’s get down to why this money-driven move shouldn’t have gone forward. 1. Players are finally getting healthier. While missed games aren’t a perfect measure to weigh frequency and severity of injury, it’s a reasonable proxy for player health. Enter NHL Injury Viz, which houses 25 years of player injury and illness data. I’ve normalized games missed by season for schedule length and team count over the past quarter-century, and the results are fascinating. From the visual, we can see that games missed have now dropped below pre-pandemic levels. Given the data counts injuries and illnesses that players actually miss games from, we can’t say that every single physical issue is factored. But we can conclude that in 2024-25, NHL players missed the fewest relative number of games in at least 23 years. In a league where players missing “only” 6,641 games is a positive trend, cramming in a few more tough matchups to juice a percentage point of revenue feels wrong. 2. We are wearing out our biggest superstars. No one is going to cry for Connor McDavid. He’s 28 years old and has earned just shy of $100 million in his 10-year career before endorsements. His next deal could push him near $20 million per season given the rising salary cap. Two more games shouldn’t wreck a finely tuned athlete. But consider his last two years. On top of the preseason schedule, McDavid faced 164 regular-season games (missed 21 due to injury), the midseason 4 Nations Face-off (scored the winning goal), plus two All-Star weekends (designed and won the 2025 skills event). He’s also played an additional 53 games of nasty postseason hockey with fewer than 90 days off each summer. That’s more than 230 game days in 21 months. While international best-on-best hockey is great for all of us, McDavid will fly to Italy and back for another six Olympic contests in February 2026. This compresses the NHL season further, resulting in 13 back-to-back outings for the Oilers, who have a famously exhausting travel schedule. With international play now slated as part of the league’s bi-annual calendar, do we need to drain the top guys further? 3. Load management is inevitable — if it hasn’t already started. Hockey fans famously chirp their basketball-loving pals about NBA talent skipping games. Hockey players would never sit out to rest. Well, we might test that theory soon. Every sport has a tipping point. In an NHL where 10 of 16 playoff teams can usually sleepwalk to the postseason, someone is going to implement the obvious benefit of load management. It may have crept in late last season… McDavid missed eight games in April with a lower-body injury. With a playoff spot secured, he was not rushed back, coasting to his 100th point in the season finale against the lowly San Jose Sharks. Leon Draisaitl, with the Rocket Richard Trophy locked, missed Edmonton’s final seven games with an undisclosed injury. He was fit enough to play the Oilers’ first playoff game, logging two points in 22:02. After leading NHL forwards in average ice time (22:47), reigning MVP Nathan MacKinnon sat the final three games with an undisclosed injury. It may have cost him the scoring title — he lost by five points to Nikita Kucherov — but ensured MacKinnon was well-rested for the postseason. While these might not be random Tuesdays in January, three of the league’s biggest stars may have quietly started a trend last spring. They were good with recovering slowly for the greater good. Goaltenders are already ahead of the curve to maximize performance — only five started 60 games last year. Will these two extra games, combined with a recurring international slate, finally push sport science in hockey to its inevitable conclusion? 4. The NHL product will get watered down. Logically, the longer the season, the less important each game becomes. The new CBA is effectively telling us that by adding to the calendar. It’s not good for entertainment purposes. Here’s why: Even if players don’t sit out, there is another consequence … they just don’t play as hard (gasp). Again, it’s two games. But we all know that feeling when you see your favorite team play the first minute of its first April playoff game. The elevated speed and physicality on that opening dump in where you lean toward the TV and nod at your buddy? This is what we give up with more games. Like you or I, athletes only have so much to give in a week, a month or a year. With ongoing talk of further expansion, more teams spread out talent. More games spread out intensity, further diluting the product. 5. The cap is already rising significantly. In the last decade, when the salary cap rose modestly — or not at all during the pandemic years — adding games to the schedule was a defendable lever to pull. Wealthy owners and athletes or not, things were ugly in the not-too-distant past. When would fans return to arenas? How much escrow were the players facing? Would league economics ever get back on track? While many dollars were lost from COVID, the rising salary cap tells a story of a league confident in economic resurgence. The cap ceiling is set to rise 29% from this past season by 2027-28. We saw the first signs of player compensation boosts in July as teams and player agents stickhandled their new reality. While free agents always get paid, they were paid this offseason given the generous cap space. Adding to the schedule as the cap quickly climbs feels like missing the forest through the trees. Conclusion: Adding two games to the calendar may not bring mass injuries, load management and a tired product overnight. But tipping points are difficult to identify in the moment. The new schedule also messes with recordkeeping and milestones, among other statistical issues. Much-needed labor peace is a win for anyone in hockey, yet even the biggest superfan would have to admit the season runs excessively long. At best, the NHL and NHLPA have taken a shortsighted risk. At worst, it could deliver a host of negative, unintended consequences.
Chicago Blackhawks reportedly set to trade 25-year-old goaltender to Stars rival, Edmonton Oilers
The Chicago Blackhawks, a crowded goaltending situation and trade rumors involving the Edmonton Oilers have fans wondering if the Stars' rivals could soon upgrade their crease before training camp. With training camp approaching, Chicago general manager Kyle Davidson has five goalies under contract, including Spencer Knight, Arvid Soderblom, Drew Commesso, newly signed Stanislav Berezhnoy, and veteran Laurent Brossoit. Only two NHL roster spots are available, which has fueled speculation that Brossoit could be moved to a contender, with Edmonton emerging as a leading candidate. For Stars fans, seeing the Oilers potentially bolster their crease should raise eyebrows. Edmonton, fresh off a deep playoff run, is looking to avoid the same issues that hurt them late in the postseason. "The Blackhawks have too many goalies and not enough spots, and Brossoit's contract and experience make him a natural trade chip for a team like the Oilers."-Julien Trekker Chicago's goalie logjam and Berezhnoy's recent signing are detailed further at NHL.com. Dallas could see its rival upgrade as Blackhawks explore trading Laurent Brossoit Brossoit, 32, carries a $3.3 million cap hit for one more season. Drafted by Calgary in 2011, he's appeared in 140 NHL games, including time with Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Vegas, where he helped the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup in 2023. While Chicago decides, Drew Commesso continues to push for NHL time after posting a .911 save percentage over 39 AHL games. For a deeper look at Commesso's performance, his full profile is on Elite Prospects. I think if Edmonton lands Brossoit or even Commesso, Dallas may have to plan around a deeper Oilers team come playoff time, especially given how tight the Western race looks on paper.
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