Three Trade Packages the Royals Can Make for Jarren Duran

One of the worst-kept secrets this offseason is the Kansas City Royals‘ pursuit of outfield help.

Over the weekend, they lost right fielder Mike Yastrzemski to the Atlanta Braves, signed free agent Lane Thomas, and acquired Isaac Collins in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers.

The only thing more publicized than the Royals’ pursuit of outfielders is the Boston Red Sox having too many. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported ahead of the Winter Meetings that there was a 50% chance that Jarren Duran is traded this offseason — an equal percentage for Wilyer Abreu.

League-wide reporting suggests Duran has the most suitors, or he’s at least the most poachable of the bunch. Either scenario makes sense; Abreu remains somewhat an unknown entering his age-26 season, while Duran has an All-Star Game MVP and 6.8-fWAR season under his belt.

The Royals were heavily linked to Duran all winter. That is, until they acquired Collins; the dream died there.

And yet, it re-birthed less than 48 hours later with a report from Ken Rosenthal that the Royals still covet the 29-year-old outfielder.

The Royals ranked 30th in fWAR in left and right field in 2025, tied for 24th in center field. Overall, Kansas City’s outfield contingent amassed -1.4 fWAR and a league-worst 70 wRC+. So, they added two outfielders but shouldn’t say no to three.

Re-enter Duran, stage left.

It’s believed the Red Sox want lefty ace Cole Ragans for their team leader in fWAR the past two seasons. An ambitious ask, but the ask, nonetheless.

It’s hard to fathom Kansas City wanting to part with its ace while posturing as a contender in 2026. The good news is, they should be able to find middle ground.

But how? Let’s take a look at some trade packages that might get it done.

Trade Package No. 1

Royals Get: OF Jarren Duran

Red Sox Get: LHP Kris Bubic, C Blake Mitchell, and LHP David Shields

The Red Sox have an abundance of starting pitching but some uncertainty around who they No. 2 is behind Garrett Crochet.

Bubic comes in with checkered medicals, the latest being a rotator cuff injury that derailed his first All-Star campaign in 2025. However, the southpaw is one of the game’s nastiest arms — when healthy.

Last year, he was in the 89th percentile in chase rate and 76th percentile for whiff rate. That’s in addition to being an elite extension guy and having a grounder-centric batted-ball profile. He’s not elite at getting ground balls, but he’s firmly above average.

His changeup and sweeper were deadly in 2025, keeping opponents under a .200 batting average against with two homers. He’s not the same dominant fastball archetype Boston sought last winter, but varying looks in a rotation works as well.

He is a rental, so that’s another wrinkle Boston would have to contend with.

Mitchell was the first catcher taken in 2023; the same draft the Red Sox took Kyle Teel. Boston since traded Teel (for ace Garrett Crochet) and now can replenish the farm with a mid-minors top prospect. He’s still raw, but his plate discipline is sublime. Last season, he walked 20.8% of his plate appearances in 60 games.

He strikes out a ton, and the strikeout issues weren’t offset by power in 2025 like it was in 2024. He’s still something of a project, but Boston’s closest thing to MLB-ready catching depth behind Jason Delay is Brooks Brannon or Nathan Hickey.

Shields ranked No. 7 on JB’s most recent rankings for Kansas City’s farm system last December. He followed up that ranking by dominating across 18 starts in A-Ball. He struck out 81 to just 15 walks, posted a 2.01 ERA and 2.68 FIP in 71.2 innings.

Trade Package No. 2

Royals Get: OF Jarren Duran

Red Sox Get: RHP Luinder Avila, RHP Ben Kudrna, and C Ramon Ramirez

Avila made 13 appearances in MLB last season and, to put it mildly, dominated.

It was a small sample size, but Avila struck out 16 and allowed just seven hits in 14 innings. His fastball clocked in at 95.8 mph on average, with a slider holding opponents to a sub-.100 batting average in MLB.

Command remains an issue for him, but he was effectively wild out of the bullpen in 2025.

Kudrna hasn’t put it together as a prospect yet, but he’s got some impressive secondaries. Unfortunately, his fastball isn’t overpowering enough to make up for inconsistent command. Last season, he had a 5.30 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 24 appearances. His walks per nine was 4.3 and, while he struck out 22.9% of batters, he struggled missing bats in general.

Perhaps a change of scenery benefits him, as well as joining forces with Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who has a reputation for elevating the stuff of those he works with.

Lastly, Ramirez gives the Red Sox a mid-minors catching prospect similar to the previous proposal with Mitchell. In A-Ball last year, he slashed .244/.339/.442 with 11 home runs and a 120 wRC+ in 70 games.

He’s projected to open the season in Double-A as well, according to FanGraphs. So, while not as far along in his development as Mitchell, still serves as a potential option later in the season.

Catcher isn’t as urgent a need as it became last season for Boston, who returns Carlos Narvaez and Connor Wong in 2026. However, after Delay in Triple-A, it gets pretty bleak.

Trade Package No. 3

Royals Get: OF Jarren Duran, LHP Kyle Harrison, and IF David Hamilton

Red Sox Get: LHP Kris Bubic and C Carter Jensen

Trade package No. 3 becomes a bit more involved, as there becomes real debate as to who the best player moved is. In 2026, that is still likely Duran. However, looking at 2027 and beyond, Jensen could be in the running for best catcher in the AL.

In JB’s top 100 prospects November update, Jensen came in at No. 14. He’s got a cannon for an arm, and the early returns on his MLB batted-ball data were elite.

His Prospect Savant page is bloody as well. In 2025, he was in the 93rd percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, 50th-percentile exit velocity, 90th-percentile exit velocity, and xwOBA. He got 69 plate appearances in MLB and slashed .300/.391/.550 with 0.7 fWAR and a .444 xwOBA.

It’s silly to prorate his production over a grander sample, but I’ll do so just for perspective. He played at a 6.6 fWAR pace over 650 plate appearances.

Naturally, that costs the Red Sox more in return, especially given the scarcity of true two-way catchers.

The additions of Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and, in this scenario, Bubic would drop Harrison out of the top seven options going into Spring Training. The Red Sox traded Quinn Priester in April, so there’s precedent here.

For the Royals, they get a 24-year-old lefty and somewhat reset their rotation with nearly a full slate of service time and two minor-league options at their disposal.

Lastly, Hamilton brings somewhat of a Duran vibe to him. He’s a bit erratic on the basepaths, but he’s overall a valuable runner. He’s not a power bat but can run into a handful. Metrically, he’s a good –albeit frustrating — defender at second base.

He’s struggled to produce with inconsistent playing time but put up 1.5 fWAR as a platooning second baseman in 2024.