Three X-Factors for the 2023 Miami Marlins

While the Washington Nationals will likely be the NL East's cellar dwellers for the entirety of the 2023 season, the Miami Marlins will have their work cut out for them if they aspire to finish better than fourth in the division. 

For the sixth year in a row, the Marlins' payroll will be in the bottom third of the league. And though the 2003 Florida Marlins (25th ranked payroll) are the only team since 1990 to win the World Series while having a payroll in the bottom half of the MLB, this year's team will be a far cry from the '03 Marlins. 

Here are the Marlins' top three x-factors for the 2023 season:

1. Sandy Alcantara, Starting Pitcher

The reigning NL Cy Young winner, Alcantara has evolved into one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He finished the 2022 season at 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and a dazzling 0.98 WHIP. His fastball velocity ranked in the 96th percentile, while his deceiving sinker and devastating changeup helped him rank in the 94th percentile for chase rate.

Alcantara's six complete games in 2022 doubled that of the next closest pitcher, he pitched 23.2 more innings (228.2) than Aaron Nola, the second-place finisher and his 8.1 WAR was the best among all MLB pitchers.

Alcantara racks up strikeouts, forces weak contact and makes hitters look downright silly. At just 27-years-old, the sky is the limit for the towering hurler, who will offer Marlins fans some much needed excitement every fifth day.

2. Jesus Luzardo, Starting Pitcher 

Luzardo, a 25-year-old lefty acquired by the Marlins at the 2021 trade deadline, will look to entrench himself as Miami's No. 2 starter after a strong second season with the team.

His 4-7 record belied his effectiveness, as he finished the year with a 3.32 ERA (down from 6.44 the year prior), a 1.04 WHIP (down from 1.60) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was better than 3:1. 

A left forearm strain limited the southpaw to 100.1 innings pitched last season, but Luzardo shined upon his return, producing a 3.34 ERA over August and September.

3. Luis Arraez, Second Base

Raise your hand if you knew that Luis Arraez was the AL batting champion in 2022 -- now put your hand down because we both know that's a lie. 

Arraez debuted with the Twins in 2019, but officially put the league on notice last year, slashing .316/.375/.420, with 31 doubles, 88 runs and only 43 strikeouts in 547 at-bats. 

The Marlins acquired Arraez this offseason in exchange for pitcher Pablo Lopez, and will likely pencil him in as the team's everyday lead-off hitter. If the Marlins want any chance at finishing the season near .500, they'll need Arraez setting the table for the heart of the order.