Tigers At Royals: Strikeout City?

Do the sports betting thing long enough and you begin to quickly realize not all bets deliver the same degree of warm-and-fuzzies. I'll admit to still being somewhat on the fence regarding tonight's game between the Tigers and Royals. On one hand, my model projects this to be among the lowest scoring games on the slate, with the first five inning total still stuck at 4.5 — usually where I auto-smash the under.

However, Seth Lugo's first returning from the IL (red flag #1) and even worse, it's without any rehab outings (red flag #2). As tempting as it may be to attack the Tigers while experiencing significant offensive woes the last week (.209 BA, +29% K, .285 wOBA, 84 wRC+), I just couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger on an under. 

When it comes to backing SPs fresh from injury, I'm once bitten twice shy. Go ahead, call me chicken...

That said, Kansas City may be hitting worse than Detroit. Don't let the .249 BA over 14 days sway you too far, the underpinning metrics stink. The Royals seem to be have been sapped of all known power — they're either last or second to last during that same timeframe in runs scored, home runs, ISO, and barrel rate. Yikes. 

Sure, KC's actual team strikeout rate's low over their last 14 days (438 PA) but they're also bottom-5 in chasing outside zone — just an example of how single stats can be misleading.

It must be the low K rates keeping Casey Mize's strikeout prop at Over 3.5 — a number he's gone over in four straight and six of eight total games started. Pop the hood on Mize's stuff and there's a lot to like for us pitching geeks. Featuring a +94 mph swing-and-miss inducing four-seamer, Mize backs it up with two top-flight secondaries. Both the split-finger and slurve have a maximum .267 xSLG allowed paired with a minimum 33% whiff rate. And he can throw both pitches to hitters on either side of the plate effectively — really impressive stuff.