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Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tigers Flip The Script In The ALDS

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kristie Ackert | Last updated Oct 5, 2025 8:54 PM ET

Highlights:

Hinch sets Jack Flaherty for Game 3 and Casey Mize for Game 4
Flaherty on regular rest to preserve rhythm and execution
Mize gets an extra day to sharpen the splitter and routine work
Comerica’s space fits Flaherty’s fly-ball lean; bullpen shadows third trip
Plan stays flexible: quick hooks, matchup pockets, no overexposure

A.J. Hinch has the Detroit Tigers switching things up for the American League Division Series.

When the series against the Seattle Mariners heads back to Detroit, Hich said he will have Jack Flaherty start Game 3, and Casey Mize gets Game 4. He is flipping the order of his rotation for “tactical” reasons.

Hinch likes Flaherty on a normal turn when his rhythm and timing are tight; Mize gets an extra day to sharpen the split and stack his work. It’s the pragmatic October move.

Why the flip makes sense

Flaherty’s 2025 looked louder under the hood than on the surface. He was 8–15, 4.64 ERA, 161 IP, 188 K, but with stronger peripherals (K% 27.6, BB% 8.7, FIP 3.85, xFIP 3.69). On standard rest, he’s been the best version of himself, and Comerica’s large space helps his fly-ball tendency. If he keeps attacking at the top, pairs the four-seam with the knuckle-curve and slider, and doesn’t overstay past two times through the lineup, especially if the Mariners stack lefties.

Flaherty steadied his Wild Card outing with 4.2 IP and 1 ER.

Mize’s year was solid.

He went 14–6, 3.87 ERA, 149 IP, 1.27 WHIP with a command-first profile (K% 22.2, BB% 5.7, FIP 3.89). The extra day matters for him because his splitter is the separator; when it’s biting, contact quality stays manageable. Give him the extra lift on the fastball and let the split play down and away to counter the lefty sluggers.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty pitches in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

What Savant and FanGraphs suggest

Flaherty’s expected line is a red flag that he must be leveraged correctly, which aligns with the K/BB ratio. That’s the profile you want on routine, at home, with a bullpen shadowing the third trip.
Mize’s contact profile mirrors the results: when he’s ahead, the split wins chases and soft contact follows. Extra rest helps keep that pitch crisp.

How to manage the edges

For Flaherty, the script is the same as he did against the Guardians in the ALWCS. He needs to attack early with a four-seam fastball, land the curve to steal streaks, and treat lefty pockets with a shorter runway. If the four-seam leaks arm-side to lefties, lean more on curve and slider and have the pen stretching by the fifth.

For Mize, everything hinges on strike one. He has to get above the barrel with the four-seam, then send the split below the zone. If the Mariners don’t chase the slider, he can’t force it.

Bottom line

Hinch is an experienced playoff manager. He is making sound decisions. To have Flaherty on rhythm and Mize on rest gives Detroit two credible paths to 15–18 outs, with the bullpen ready to cover the third-time-through the rotation. In October, that’s the whole trick: set the table for your strengths, avoid the bad matchups and take advantage of the ballpark your team is built to play in.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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