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Tigers’ nightmare scenario for 2025 MLB playoffs

Originally posted on MLB on ClutchPoints | Last updated Sep 18, 2025 2:11 PM ET

The Detroit Tigers have a 4.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. With 11 games to go, Detroit is most likely going to win its division for the first time since 2014. But even with Tarik Skubal leading the rotation, there are pitching concerns for the Tigers going into the postseason. What is Detroit’s nightmare scenario for October?

Last year, the Tigers snuck into the playoffs based on a blistering hot September. They were not enough of a contender to dream up a nightmare scenario, but if they had, it probably would have involved the Houston Astros. They went to Texas and swept AJ Hinch’s former club in the Wild Card series. Now, they may get a bye past the Wild Card Series.

The Tigers’ nightmare scenario involves collapsing down the stretch and losing the second bye. The Wild Card series has not been kind to the home team in recent years, with the road team winning three of the four sets last year. Even with Skubal locking down one game, it will be tough to win a three-game set.

The Tigers have a 59.6% chance of earning the bye, according to FanGraphs. With the Astros just 1.5 games behind them in the standings, they could easily fall into the Wild Card round. While they dominated the three-game set last year, their bullpen was in a much better spot. Will Vest and Tommy Kahnle have been struggling of late, but could turn it on in October.

There was a point in the season where it looked like the Tigers could clinch the best record in MLB. Falling out of the top two of the American League would be a rough way to enter the postseason. Since the All-Star Break, they are 26-29. Without a solid week to finish, it will be a disappointing second half.

The Tigers do not have the depth behind Tarik Skubal

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The nightmare scenario for the Tigers is playing in the three-game Wild Card because of their starting rotation. They could be facing the Seattle Mariners, who have one of the elite pitching staffs in the league. Behind Skubal, Jack Flaherty has struggled in his return to Detroit. If he cannot turn it around, the three-game series could be rough.

If the Tigers do secure the bye, they will be the number two seed in the American League. They would face the winner of the Wild Card series that does not involve the AL West winner. As of Thursday, that would be the Boston Red Sox vs the Seattle Mariners. Both of those teams have pitching depth that crushes the Tigers, but having Skubal twice evens out the advantage.

The Tigers’ offense will need to thrive in a five-game Division Series to make sure Skubal gets the ball twice. Gleyber Torres has cooled off, from an .812 OPS in the first half to a .653 in the second half. A stellar postseason could earn him a long-term contract, in Detroit or otherwise, which should be a catalyst. He shone as the lead-off hitter for the 2024 Yankees.

Another All-Star cooling off is Javier Baez, whose bounce-back has stopped on a dime. He was the starting centerfielder for the American League with a .752 OPS in July. But a .517 OPS and a return to the bench have put a damper on his second half. Baez, unlike Torres, is tied to Detroit through 2027 and will be key to any success they have in that time.

The Tigers are almost assuredly making the playoffs, but need to end on the right foot to make sure they earn the bye. Once they do, Tarik Skubal’s left arm and some veteran bats could bring them deep in the American League playoffs.

This article first appeared on MLB on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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