Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, picks, odds for ALDS Game 2 on Monday, Oct. 7

Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 Projected Starting Pitchers

Tony Sartori’s Tigers vs. Guardians Preview

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Skubal Gives Tigers Automatic Edge

Any time Skubal is on the mound, I’m immediately looking to see if the Tigers moneyline or the under is in play.

For this game, we are going to target the under, which opened at 6.5 but has dipped to 6 at a number of sportsbooks.

The best pitcher in baseball, Skubal posted an 18-4 record in 31 starts during the regular season with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally dominant as the southpaw ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.

Skubal is coming off a dominant postseason start against the Houston Astros, a game in which he tossed six scoreless frames. There were only four total runs scored in that outing, and I expect a similar result on Monday against Cleveland.

The left-hander is 2-0 over his past four starts against the Guardians with a 1.80 ERA.

Following Skubal is a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA and 11th in FIP.

However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as Detroit ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Matthew Boyd Faces Old Squad

Cleveland’s lineup isn’t much stronger, considering that it also ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

The good news for the Guardians is that they can lean on a strong pitching staff, beginning with Boyd. Through eight starts this season, the left-hander boasts a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

His analytics suggest future success, given that Boyd ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

We should also trust the best bullpen in baseball, which ranks first in both ERA and FIP.

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Game 2 Betting Analysis

While 6.5 is a relatively low total, I feel confident in a low-scoring affair on Monday.

Skubal will be the AL Cy Young winner and is the best pitcher in baseball. Meanwhile, Boyd has proven that he can hold his own as well.

After both starting pitchers take care of business, we can trust two bullpens that both rank in the top five in ERA. That just leaves the hitting, which is the main weakness of each team.

Both lineups fail to crack the top half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Finally, the weather should help us out as the forecast calls for winds blowing in from left-center field.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-124 at FanDuel | Play to -130)

Moneyline

While I like Detroit to even up the series, I have no interest in laying -130 on its moneyline to do so.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

In a projected low-scoring affair, I would lean toward Cleveland at +1.5, but not with the associated -178 line.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

I’m betting under 6.5.

Pick: Bet Under 6.5

Tigers Betting Trends

• Tigers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Tigers are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers’ last 5 games

Guardians Betting Trends

• Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians’ 80 last games at home

Tigers vs Guardians Monday Weather Forecast

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