x
Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Carson Kelly
MESA, ARIZONA – MARCH 9: Carson Kelly #15 of the Chicago Cubs runs during a Spring Training game against the San Francisco Giants at Sloan Park on March 9, 2025 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)

Over the past couple of seasons in Chicago, Carson Kelly has re-emerged as one of the more consistent catchers in baseball. What was set to be a fairly even tandem between himself and Miguel Amaya ended up with Kelly playing in over half of the team’s games. While his counterpart did deal with some injuries, Kelly’s time on the field was largely a result of his strong performance.

In 2025, he slashed .249/.333/.428 with a career-high 115 wRC+. He exceeded all expectations the Cubs had for him. While this season’s 103 wRC+ was less exciting, he was still a strong contributor, and the metrics support the idea that he has plenty more to give.

From 2025 to 2026, his bat speed remained nearly the same, with just a slight increase, while his contact quality took a small dip. His plate discipline profile remained nearly identical. Kelly has a great understanding of the strike zone, rarely whiffs, and actually struck out at a lower rate this season.

The main factor that likely contributed to the decrease in production was his batted-ball profile. This season, Kelly’s ground-ball rate increased from 38.2% to 45.8%. Much of his success in 2025 came from his ability to keep the ball off the ground and pull it in the air.

His GB/FB ratio this year was the highest in a full season of his career. Essentially, if he gets back in line with his 2025 batted-ball profile, that high-level production could return in some capacity. This is not to say his 2026 season was bad, though teams looking for more may have greater confidence in a potential contract with that in mind.

As for his defense, Kelly’s arm is subpar, though his pop time is only slightly below average. He is an excellent pitch blocker, which accounts for most of his defensive value.

Set to be one of the top catchers on the market, many teams will surely see Kelly as a fit. Here are four that make the most sense for him.

Free Agent Profile: Carson Kelly

  • Age in 2027: 32
  • 2026 Stats: 121 G, .258/.336/.376, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 103 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
  • 2026 Salary: $5 million
  • Qualifying Offer Received? No

Contract Projection

  • Contract Length Expectation: 1-3 years
  • Expected AAV: $6-12 million

Free Agent Landing Spots for Carson Kelly

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds’ offense in 2026 was one of, if not the worst in Major League Baseball. They posted an MLB-worst 91 wRC+ while striking out at a 25.5% clip. They lacked any major contributors outside of Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, and will surely look to fill some offensive gaps this winter.

Tyler Stephenson handled most of the team’s catching duties, and he was just okay. His offensive numbers were slightly below league average and similar to his 2025 production. However, with his defensive struggles and elevated strikeout rates, the Reds may look elsewhere while they wait for Just Baseball’s 22nd-ranked prospect, Alfredo Duno, to arrive.

This is where the Carson Kelly fit comes into play. He will likely land a shorter-term contract, may provide an offensive upgrade, and will certainly add some defensive stability. The biggest aspect of Kelly’s offensive profile that would benefit the Reds’ lineup is his contact ability. Among Reds hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Ke’Bryan Hayes was the only player to post a sub-20% strikeout rate in 2026.

Bringing in Carson Kelly would give Cincinnati an opportunity to bridge the gap between now and Duno’s likely arrival while adding a contact-oriented bat and some defensive stability behind the plate.

Chicago Cubs

After spending the last two seasons in Chicago, will the Cubs look to run it back with Carson Kelly? They did decline their end of the $7.5 million mutual option, though they could still look to bring him back on a new deal.

He is already familiar with the pitching staff, though there will be a good amount of turnover on that front. On top of that, he’s posted a 109 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR over the last two years, making him one of the more productive catchers in the game over that span.

Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said earlier this week that the team may look to bring back Carson Kelly for the 2027 season. However, with Miguel Amaya still on the roster and JB’s 90th-ranked prospect Owen Ayers on the verge of the majors, Hawkins also stated that the organization is comfortable filling that hole internally.

It’s evident that the catcher position will not be a priority for Jed Hoyer this offseason. Working out a deal with Kelly remains a definite possibility, but given the state of the pitching staff and the club’s belief in Amaya and Ayers, it’s very possible he ends up elsewhere.

New York Yankees

The Yankees seriously lacked production from their catchers in 2026. Their catching group managed a combined .598 OPS, making it the biggest weakness in their lineup. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Yankees have already checked in with Carson Kelly this offseason.

Their primary catcher was Austin Wells, who had a career-worst season offensively, though most of his struggles stemmed from issues against left-handed pitching. This creates a perfect opportunity for a platoon behind the plate.

Last season, Carson Kelly slashed .298/.375/.496 against lefties, while Wells’ wRC+ was 78 points higher against right-handers. Bringing in that production, even in just a platoon role, would instantly fill a massive gap in their lineup.

There wouldn’t be much of a defensive discrepancy in this scenario either. Wells is the more valuable defender, but Kelly is solid as well and could be even better with more frequent days off his legs.

Contractually, Kelly will almost certainly be cheaper than a player like Ryan Jeffers, giving New York more room to address other needs. Obviously, Kelly will need to agree to a reduced role, but the Yankees will likely once again contend, and he’d be going right back into a winning atmosphere.

Minnesota Twins

Contrary to the other teams on this list, the Twins are potentially looking at a major loss in offensive production if they do not add value at the catcher position. They are potentially losing Ryan Jeffers in free agency, meaning one of their top bats could be out of the lineup.

Over the last four years in Minnesota, Jeffers has posted a .782 OPS and slugged 73 home runs. He has been a major contributor when healthy and was just as productive in 2026 heading into free agency. Jeffers reportedly intends to decline his $23.15 million qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract.

While they could look to retain him, his contract may be out of their price range. Still, the Twins can add meaningful value for much cheaper.

Bringing in a guy like Carson Kelly would likely help limit the loss of Jeffers and could give them a quality budget bat given the Twins’ constraints. As it stands, the Twins’ projected Opening Day catcher will be Victor Caratini, who had a .627 OPS in 2026. Behind him, according to FanGraphs RosterResource, would be Noah Cardenas, a player with no big-league service time.

Minnesota also has one of baseball’s top catching prospects in Vahn Lackey, though he likely won’t be ready until at least 2028. Kelly could provide an immediate solution without requiring the long-term commitment that Jeffers may command.

Work will likely have to be done in the Twins’ catching room, and if they want to make it count, Carson Kelly may be their best option.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!