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Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Dylan Cease
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – JULY 02: Dylan Cease #84 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on July 02, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

This offseason, many major league clubs will hope to improve their rotation with another impact arm. They’ll find themselves bidding against one another in free agency for the same few starting pitchers with frontline potential. A proven starter who stands to benefit from these competitive negotiations is right-hander Dylan Cease.

Cease, who spent the past two seasons with the San Diego Padres, is consistently one of baseball’s best at making batters swing and miss. His 29.8% strikeout rate in 2025 ranked among the top 11% of pitchers in the league.

Despite maintaining an elite K-rate throughout his career, Cease has finished with an ERA north of 4.50 twice over the last three seasons.

His results were excellent in 2024 (3.47 ERA) but lackluster in 2025 (4.55 ERA). This discrepancy is puzzling – many metrics, such as his fastball velocity, whiff rate, and Stuff+, were all about the same over those two campaigns.

Possible explanations for Cease’s regression include a slightly elevated walk rate (+1.3%) and hard-hit rate (+3.1%) this past season. He also saw his home run rate on fly balls increase (11.9% in 2025, 9.1% in 2024) and experienced a drastic BABIP jump from .263 in 2024 to .320 in 2025.

Regardless of the year-to-year variance in his batted-ball profile, Cease’s ability to miss bats should make it easy for MLB organizations to convince themselves that he can produce as an ace in 2026.

Free Agent Profile: Dylan Cease

  • Age in 2026: 30
  • 2025 Stats: 32 GS, 168 IP, 4.55 ERA, 215 K, 3.4 fWAR
  • 2025 Salary: $13.75 million
  • Qualifying Offer Received: Yes

Contract Projection

  • Contract Length Expectation: 4-7 years
  • Expected AAV: $25-35 million

Signing a starting pitcher to a lucrative deal, like the one we project for Cease, is a big risk. Numerous starters have to miss large chunks of time each year due to reconstructive arm surgeries, which can affect their skillset when they return.

Cease’s case is a curious one. Despite sitting between 96-97 mph with his fastball throughout his time in the big leagues, he has pitched at least 165 innings in every season since 2021. Typically, pitchers who throw harder are more at risk for major injuries, like a torn UCL.

He underwent Tommy John surgery as a senior in high school in 2014, but Cease has not torn his UCL since. It feels unfortunate that we have to wonder not if, but when, he has another major elbow injury at this pace.

The clean bill of health to begin Cease’s career will be a major talking point in negotiations for his camp. For better or for worse, throwing 884 innings over a five-year stretch is a tremendous accomplishment in this age of baseball. He has established effective throwing and recovery routines that have allowed his body to consistently stay in baseball shape.

Teams will have to weigh the risk with the reward and decide if they are willing to fork over a ~$30 million AAV contract when one or more of those seasons could be lost to injury.

Free Agent Landing Spots for Dylan Cease

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are coming off of a disappointing 76-86 finish, but have the talent to compete this coming season. Atlanta was snakebit by injuries to many of their starting pitchers, so adding a new impact starter like Cease would allow them to feel more comfortable in the depth of their rotation.

The Braves have an exciting blend of experience and youth in their projected starting rotation. Flamethrower Spencer Strider struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery (4.45 ERA) but is still a key part of this pitching staff. 36-year-old Chris Sale figures to give Atlanta quality innings even though he is unlikely to be a workhorse at this point in his career.

Spencer Schwellenbach was outstanding (110 IP, 3.09 ERA) before his 2025 season was cut short by a broken elbow. He hopes to pitch for the majority of next season but may not return to form immediately. In his stead, Hurston Waldrep could step up; Waldrep performed well in his brief rookie campaign (56.1 IP, 2.88 ERA). He is likely to be a back-end starter on Opening Day and will hope to cement his role on the staff.

AJ Smith-Shawver (torn UCL) is unlikely to be available for most, if not all, of next season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

A Braves rotation consisting of Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach, and Waldrep in 2026 sounds pretty good, but the whole National League is trying to take down the super-team Dodgers. If Atlanta could add Cease to that group, they would be in a stronger position to do so.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox had a resurgent 89-73 season, which ended with a Wild Card round loss. To get over the hump, they’ll likely be in the market for an impactful free agent to add to their talented, young core.

In Boston, Cease would not be expected to be the team’s ace. They already have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Garrett Crochet, who is under team control through at least 2030. The question marks in their rotation begin after Crochet.

Brayan Bello functioned as the team’s number two starter last season, but his lowly 17.7% strikeout rate is reason for concern. He’s good enough to be a back-end guy, but shouldn’t be counted on for much more.

The Red Sox have two talented left-handed starters who debuted late in 2025 in Connelly Early and Payton Tolle. Both are likely to have a big role with the club this coming season, but it would be irresponsible to rely on rookies to be the second and third best pitchers on the team.

President of baseball operations Craig Breslow is doing a great job of getting the most out of his pitchers, and the Red Sox are primed to compete for at least the next few years. That should make them a desirable destination for Cease, who would be a nice addition to legitimize their starting rotation.

Chicago Cubs

Chicago’s president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, is quite familiar with Cease; the Cubs drafted him out of high school in the sixth round. Yet, he never debuted in the majors with the Cubs – he was shipped to the cross-town rival White Sox in 2017 as part of a package for Jose Quintana.

It was a successful 92-70 season for Chicago last year, but they could be losing some key contributors. Their best hitter, Kyle Tucker, and one of their best pitchers, Shota Imanaga, are now free agents. Hoyer will need to make some big moves to improve his club if the Cubs hope to repeat as 90-game winners.

Matthew Boyd had an outstanding season last year (179.2 IP, 3.21 ERA), but it’s not a great plan to rely on a 34-year-old who tops out at 93 mph to be an ace again. Cade Horton was successful in his rookie campaign (118 IP, 2.67 ERA), though his 20.4% strikeout rate isn’t indicative of him ascending to ace status in 2026.

Behind those two, it’s Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea, and Javier Assad in the Cubs’ projected rotation. Left-hander Justin Steele is recovering from undergoing Tommy John surgery in April, so he’s unlikely to impact the roster until the second half in a best-case scenario.

On paper, this Chicago team doesn’t look as talented as last year’s. Adding a big-time free agent like Cease could be crucial for the 2026 Cubs to contend.

New York Mets

Last season’s 83-79 record was a massive disappointment, based on the Mets’ preseason expectations. The organization had the second-highest payroll in the league after signing superstar outfielder Juan Soto, and it was their pitching that let them down.

The veterans in New York’s projected rotation gave them very little, with the exception of David Peterson (168.2 IP, 4.22 ERA). Kodai Senga was outstanding through mid-June (73.2 IP, 1.47 ERA), but following a mid-season hamstring strain, he was not the same. In nine starts following the injury, Senga had a 5.90 ERA in 39.2 innings and was demoted to Triple-A in September.

Sean Manaea was the expensive pitcher that the Mets signed last offseason, and he was unable to make his season debut until July due to oblique and elbow ailments. Upon his return, he gave up a lot of runs (5.64 ERA) despite getting plenty of strikeouts (28.6% K-rate).

The optimism for the Mets’ staff revolves around rookies Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong. McLean was the best of the three in the majors (48 IP, 2.06 ERA), but all three were dominant in the minor leagues.

New York has a lot of options for their rotation, some of which are likely to be good, but they have even more question marks. Cease would be an established entity at the top of what is likely to be a young starting rotation.

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco is always involved in talks for big-name free agents, and they landed one last offseason in shortstop Willy Adames. They swung big to acquire Rafael Devers in June and now have some pieces on offense. Entering year two of his tenure as president of baseball operations, Buster Posey will look to make another big splash in free agency.

The top of the Giants’ rotation still appears to be in good shape going into next season. Logan Webb has been as consistent as starting pitchers come, throwing at least 200 innings for the third consecutive season in 2025. Robbie Ray was also solid, bouncing back nicely post-Tommy John surgery to throw 182.1 innings with a 3.65 ERA.

The rest of the projected rotation, however, comes with much less certainty. Landen Roupp is likely to be a part of the big league staff after throwing 106.2 innings with a 3.80 ERA in 2025. Other rotation candidates include Kai-Wei Teng, Trevor McDonald, Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Hayden Birdson, Carson Seymour, and Keaton Winn.

Since the Giants appear to be in win-now mode, one would think that they would be eager to add to a questionable rotation. Just Baseball’s editor-in-chief Ryan Finkelstein believes so – he forecasted that Cease would sign with the Giants in his offseason predictions.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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