Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Lucas Giolito

Ordered restored for right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito in 2025.

After missing the 2024 season to injury and preceding that with two seasons as one of the worst qualified starters in baseball, the right-hander helped anchor a very good Boston Red Sox pitching staff.

It looked as if it’d be more of a disturbing trend for the 31-year-old early in camp. After recovering from elbow surgery all of last season, Giolito strained his hamstring in his first spring training start. That injury forced him out of the remaining exhibition season and almost all of April.

After a quality start in his Red Sox debut, he basically alternated between dominance and batting practice. After seven starts, his ERA was 6.42; he’d given up six or more runs three times and one or fewer three times. Yet, after that stretch, he posted a 2.51 ERA in his final 19 starts.

Unfortunately for Giolito, his last start of 2025 came on Sept. 23, as he’d re-injured his elbow. Not only did it end his regular season prematurely, but he was left off the Wild Card roster as well.

Following the season, Giolito declined his end of a mutual option for the 2026 campaign. The Red Sox also chose not to extend him the qualifying offer, giving him free liberty to be pursued by other organizations with no strings attached.

Set to turn 32 years old next July, this might be his last chance to sign a longer-term contract. The question that remains is… will he?

Free Agent Profile: Lucas Giolito

• Age in 2026: 31 (32 on July 14)
• 2025 Stats: 26 GS, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 145.0 IP, 2.0 fWAR
• 2025 Salary: $20.5 million (including buyout)
• Qualifying Offer Received?: No

Contract Projection

• Contract Length Expectations: 2-3 years
• Expected AAV: $16-22 million

It’ll be an interesting market to follow, Giolito’s. On one hand, he was great at the number one thing a starter needs to be great at: preventing runs. On the other hand, it was often not pretty, especially down the stretch, when he didn’t look nearly as strong as he did in July and August.

At the bare minimum, teams should know Giolito can eat up innings. He pitched just shy of 5.2 innings per start in 2025 and logged 14 quality starts among his 26 total.

The strikeout numbers were way down compared to his pre-injury years, but his home runs per nine innings nearly halved from 2023. Because of the strikeout regression coupled with walk stagnation, Giolito’s under-the-hood metrics are not super enticing. His 4.99 expected ERA was his worst since 2018; his 4.59 expected FIP was too.

For Boston, there are a lot of similarities between him and another one-year Red Sox: Michael Wacha. Wacha had a very good 2022 season in Boston, marred by poor under-the-hood metrics. The team didn’t appear too interested in bringing him back, but he’s gone on to replicate that success in three additional years for two different franchises.

Do they run the risk of it happening again? Is it worth the gamble regardless of the outcome?

Free Agent Landing Spots for Lucas Giolito

Boston Red Sox

Familiarity breeds intrigue here for the Red Sox, who seem more interested in raising the ceiling of their rotation than securing its floor. After they traded for three-time All-Star Sonny Gray earlier this week, reports suggest they’re more likely to pursue bats than upgrades for the back of the rotation.

That said, who’s to say the soon-to-be 32-year-old can’t be a ceiling raiser in 2026 and beyond? We’ve seen a trend in recent years of guys coming back from elbow surgery and undergoing very laborious seasons, then seeing a bump in year two.

Look no further than Detroit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty, who had similar under-the-hood metrics to Giolito before posting a 3.17 ERA and winning a World Series in 2024.

Not to say this is a one-size-fits-all situation, but there’s precedent set that guys can improve in year two post-op.

Giolito raved about his time in Boston, calling it the most fun he’s ever had in the big leagues. He seemed to fit into the vibe of that rotation exceedingly well and had a great relationship with the many rookies, including infielder Marcelo Mayer.

The Red Sox could look to add one more starter this offseason. Giolito definitely could be the guy.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Having traded Merrill Kelly at this past season’s deadline, and with Zac Gallen a free agent, the Diamondbacks should be hunting for starting pitching this winter.

Giolito makes sense for them because he’s crafty and, as demonstrated by his time in Boston, very good with young players. The right-hander would’ve had the second-best ERA in the D-backs rotation last year, trailing just Ryne Nelson’s 3.39.

As a staff, the Diamondbacks had the 19th-ranked rotation ERA in 2025, coupled with the 21st-ranked fWAR. In short, they need to dramatically improve upon that if they want to return to October for the first time since losing in the World Series in 2023.

Ultimately, Gallen’s free agency may determine Arizona’s willingness to add more to its rotation. However, if the incumbent decides to leave this winter, Giolito serves as a great band-aid for an otherwise young rotation.

San Francisco Giants

Keeping the right-hander in a pitcher-friendly ballpark could do wonders for keeping his homer numbers in line.

Behind Logan Webb, the Giants possess tons of intrigue but not a lot of certainty in their rotation. Carson Whisenhunt and Hayden Birdsong are at the forefront of the intrigue, despite both projecting to open 2025 in Triple-A.

Even southpaw Robbie Ray isn’t a sure thing for them. Injuries riddled him in 2023 and ’24. While he was super effective in 2025, he’s struggled to stack consecutive good years throughout his career.

The Giants need more volume from their starters in 2026 to have a shot at postseason contention as it is. Despite ranking 11th in starter fWAR, they ranked 17th in innings and ERA.

San Francisco may represent Giolito’s best shot at the higher end of his projected contract. Typically, an organization that comes up short in free agency, the Giants might have to overpay to snag the veteran right-hander.

Texas Rangers

There are plenty of reports suggesting the Rangers are looking to shed salary this winter, so this is on the lower end of likelihood. But with Kelly hitting free agency, there’s room for a new veteran to join their rotation for 2026.

Unlike with the previous teams mentioned, Giolito would definitely enter a situation in Texas where he’s a back-end starter. With Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom at the top, plus the ongoing developments of Jack Leiter and Jacob Latz, there’s a real chance the 31-year-old would be the No. 5 starter in Texas.

Now, that’s assuming the rumored desire to shed salary is more centered around the team’s lineup than rotation.

Last year, the Rangers had the best starting pitching ERA in baseball and the third-best fWAR. What they lacked, despite the run prevention, was subsequent volume to heighten the dominance of the rotation; they ranked 11th in innings.

For one, maybe two seasons, Giolito could come in to shore up the back end of the rotation while the Rangers continue to allow Leiter, Latz, and Kumar Rocker to take the reins.

San Diego Padres

The Padres dipped into the former Red Sox starter well last winter with Nick Pivetta, who emerged as the team’s ace in 2025. They also were the team to poach Wacha from Boston after the 2022 season.

With two starters hitting free agency this winter, why not tap back into that well?

The Padres ranked 22nd as a staff in fWAR last season (8.9), with Pivetta and Dylan Cease combining for 7.1.

Given the reports of the Seidler family needing to sell the franchise, it’s hard to see them retaining Cease. Not to mention Michael King, who is also a free agent and a top-flight starter in this game despite injury concerns.

Giolito would help replace the innings lost by a potential Cease departure while also adding stability to the middle of that rotation. He also comes cheap enough to be worth the investment for multiple years.

Even amid potential financial turbulence, the Padres are still hungry to deliver a title to San Diego. If there’s one certainty, it’s that general manager A.J. Preller will get creative in attacking that goal.