Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle‘s career is a difficult one to describe. He’s been labeled a top prospect, a breakout candidate, injury-prone, and, most recently, excellent. A 2.18 ERA and 3.37 FIP will do that.

After missing the majority of the prior two seasons due to injury, Mahle returned to make 16 starts in 2025, pitching to an impressive 1.64 ERA through May, until, like so many times throughout his career, injury limited him down the stretch.

Talent has never been the question. Mahle came up as a top prospect in the Reds system and showed flashes of promise before landing in Minnesota at the 2022 deadline. He has a true four-pitch mix, which he utilizes well to keep batters guessing and off the barrel.

Although he’s talented enough to be a mid-rotation starter for a contending team, his next contract is a difficult one to predict.

Of course, there is still an upside play with Mahle. Not in terms of development like you might see with a progressing 24-year-old, but in terms of the upside of if he stays healthy. Sure, there is some pot-at-the-end-of-the-rainbow dreaming that is likely unrealistic, but the value of a full season of Mahle would far surpass the money he is going to get.

Considering he has pitched more than 130 innings only once in his career, and his past three seasons have had more time on the injured list than not, I doubt Mahle will get any significant term. In fact, a two-year deal might not even be on the table.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Mahle

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 16 GS, 86.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 19.1% K%, 8.4% BB%
• 2025 Salary: $16.5 million (two-year $22 million contract)
• Qualifying Offer Eligible: Yes

Contract Projection

• Contract Length Expectation: 1-2 years
• Expected AAV: $12-18 million

One thing we know is that teams love to roll the dice on one-year deals for talented players, injury history or not. Just last year, we saw the Tigers give $15 million to Alex Cobb and the Red Sox give $20 million to Walker Buehler, who were each coming off an injury. Neither deal worked out.

Most teams will use between eight and 12 starters throughout the season. Rotation depth has never been more important than it is now, with the number of pitching injuries on the rise. It has become common to go into spring training with more than five starters and let the chips fall as they may.

Injuries aren’t the only thing going up – the money is, too. Even back-end starters are approaching $15+ million a year, which should make taking a chance on Mahle, at a discount, attractive to so many teams.

Ultimately, I think Mahle’s deal falls somewhere around $15 million, or perhaps a little less, regardless of whether it’s for one or two years. Mahle would surely like some type of security, so a more creative deal with opt-outs could make sense, but I think it is not as likely.

Free Agent Landing Spots for Tyler Mahle

Baltimore Orioles

Orioles fans are probably still upset about their team’s mediocre pitching additions from last season and have their eyes on much flashier names. That is exactly why Mahle is a fit. He’ll cost a similar amount of money and come with a similar amount of risk that we have seen the O’s give out and take on before. We all know past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior.

The Orioles had a number of injuries to their rotation last season, which should encourage the front office to focus on filling innings with a veteran arm that offers more upside than, let’s just say, Charlie Morton.

Grayson Rodriguez is going to miss time, while Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish each pitched fewer than 40 innings last season. Not to mention, Cade Povich hasn’t exactly established himself as a bona fide option.

I hope the O’s add a bigger name along with Mahle. However, the Mahle type fits what they need, no matter what other moves are made. A short-term deal is attractive when you consider how many of their core players are due big money sooner than later.

Add Mahle, fill innings with a collection of often hurt/coming-off-injury arms, and keep the financial flexibility going forward.

Los Angeles Angels

Predicting what the Angels will do is sort of like predicting what a four-year-old will say next. If there’s one team that hands out a three-plus-year deal, it would be the Angels. A 34-year-old Yusei Kikuchi is the only true proven member of the rotation, while José Soriano is still trying to put it all together for his promised breakout.

Reid Detmers, who was excellent when moved to the bullpen, is going back to the rotation. At least until the Angels figure out that the move to the bullpen was the reason for his turnaround. Past those three, it’s a collection of very young arms being rushed to the majors. Something has to change.

Mahle, who grew up less than an hour away from Anaheim, might enjoy pitching for his hometown team. I’d argue the Angels are the best fit if he’s looking for the most significant role in his free agency. He could come in and be their number three starter right away.

Money is not an issue. The Angels need pitching in the worst way. A homecoming of sorts always increases the chances. Let’s see it happen.

Arizona Diamondbacks

When the Diamondbacks traded for Corbin Burnes, they elevated their rotation into a top-five unit in baseball. Fast forward a year, and you have Eduardo Rodriguez, Bryce Jarvis, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Cristian Mena as the top five. Yikes.

Arizona’s team is far too good not to add more, so it is a bit unfair to judge them in late October. But, Mahle could be a piece that helps the back of the rotation and allows the front office to shift their rotation to a higher-end piece.

Even if Zac Gallen returns, Mahle makes sense. Burnes comes back mid-season? Still could use Mahle. The number of innings currently slotted to unproven or underwhelming arms is simply too high. Mahle would allow the Diamondbacks to patch a rotation spot while also not blowing their budget to iron out the rest of their needs.

I could be talked into this being the best fit. A contending team is attractive, opportunities will be plentiful, and Arizona is close to the market sizes in which he has pitched in the past.

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia has a number of big decisions to make this offseason. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suárez, Max Kepler, and Harrison Bader (mutual option) are all set to hit the market. Not to mention, they have other needs to fill and players to trade, like Nick Castellanos.

Their rotation is by no means a weak link in their operation. Christopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler (coming back from injury), and Andrew Painter make for a strong group. However, the need for a back-end arm who could fill some innings would help the team navigate Wheeler’s return from injury and whatever Painter’s inning restriction might look like.

Mahle on a short-term deal would help keep Philadelphia’s World Series dreams alive while not tying up large amounts of money well into the future.

I assume the Phillies will spend big money elsewhere on the roster, leaving the rotation with a back-end starter budget.

San Francisco Giants

Lastly, the Giants. A team that has invested in its offense and now must turn its attention to the rotation. Logan Webb is a surefire workhorse, Robbie Ray was a great buy-low, and Landen Roupp is an impressive young arm. After those names, there are a number of question marks.

Carson Whisenhunt and Hayden Birdsong both have upside, but the Giants should not go into the season expecting either to be a 30-game starter. Of course, you can say the same for Mahle. The reason I like this particular fit is because of the ballpark they play in. Mahle has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career, and San Francisco allows him plenty of room in the outfield.

The Giants are going to continue to be aggressive. I could see them offering a one-year deal with the highest AAV, giving the extra $1-2 million in hopes of avoiding term. They have taken risks on pitchers with an injury past before, so Mahle’s health should not scare them away.