Thus far in the 2024 season, Toronto’s hitters (collectively) have been underwhelming. After the May 11 game against Minnesota, Toronto’s wRC+ was 99 (one percent below average, tied for MLB’s 17th-highest). However, there are reasons for optimism as the rest of the 2024 campaign unfolds. Let’s take a look.
I have organized the article into the following sections:
Before the 2024 season began, MLB observers typically identified three Blue Jays who needed to bounce back from disappointing 2023 campaigns: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Alejandro Kirk. Bo Bichette is another player who is essential to Toronto’s offence. For simplicity, let’s call these four players “Springer & Co.” Table 1 shows that all four have underperformed vis-à-vis 2023 boxscore numbers and 2024 pre-season estimates.
These hitters account for 40% of all 2024 Blue Jays’ plate appearances and have posted an 83 wRC+. The other Blue Jays’ batters have generated a 109 wRC+. For some perspective, if the two groups were MLB teams, 83 wRC+ and 109 wRC+ would rank 27th and T9, respectively. It is difficult for a team to be better than average if batters have made 40% of all plate appearances with the 4th-lowest wRC+.
“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
– George E.P. Box, Statistician
MLB observers use many publicly available forecast services to project future player performance. One of the better-known is the Zymborski Projection System (“ZiPS”). For an explanation of the basics of ZiPS, please click on the link. ZiPS DC projections are ZiPS estimates pro-rated to Depth Charts playing time.
Regarding Springer & Co., the projected pre-season wRC+ numbers for its members, reflected in Table 1, were reasonable.
The ZiPS DC 2024 estimated wRC+ figures for the Blue Jays were similar to other projection models, including Steamer. Hence, the ZiPS DC 2024 wRC+ forecast for Springer & Co. was reasonable.
Some MLB observers assume that what happens in the early part of a season will continue throughout the rest of the campaign. However, that assumption is not supported by data. Please consider Table 2.
I started compiling the article’s data after Toronto’s May 8 game. At that point, the Blue Jays played 37 games in the 2024 campaign. I decided to examine how the 2023 campaign unfolded for Blue Jay players after Game 37. The reader will note the following:
The reader can see that a batter’s batting performance can significantly change after a season’s quarter-pole. Let’s look at the rest-of-season (“RoS”) 2024 numbers for most Blue Jays. The projections are reason for optimism. I should note that FanGraphs updates the ZiPS DC RoS projections daily.
The metric I selected from the ZiPS DC RoS projections was wOBA. For an explanation of wOBA and xwOBA, please click on the links. Behold Table 3. The highlights are as follows:
I translated the RoS projected wOBA numbers at the team level into the corresponding wRC+ score. The result is a 115 wRC+ for the balance of the 2024 campaign. After the games of May 11, a 115 wRC+ would be tied for MLB’s fifth-highest mark. The 115 wRC+ forecast is a reason for optimism.
Is it outlandish to expect a team’s wRC+ to change significantly after Game 37 of a given season?
The 2023 Blue Jays produced the same after Game 37. Their wRC+ was 108 from Opening Day to Game 37 and 107 for the rest of the season. However, some notable changes occurred after Game 37 of the 2023 season.
Therefore, quarter-pole results do not necessarily continue during the final three-quarters of the horse race.
Yes, all models are wrong. However, from a batting perspective, based on ZiPS DC’s track record, I am optimistic about the balance of Toronto’s 2024 campaign. However, there are some changes that Management should make to the lineup in the interim.
Although I believe Toronto will improve its hitting over the balance of the 2024 campaign, some short-term changes should be implemented to bolster the hitting. Before listing those changes, I will provide some context.
Yep, Table 4. Of the listed players, Horwitz is the best candidate to fill a potential Vogellbach opening.
I would make the following changes:
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
Toronto Blue Jays hitters have been underwhelming thus far in the 2024 season. The primary reason for the lacklustre batting lies at the feet of Springer, Bichette, Guerrero Jr. and Kirk. Guerrero (132 wRC+) and Kirk (151 wRC+) have performed well over the past 30 days. However, Springer (53 wRC+) and Bichette (47 wRC+) have not.
Despite the disappointing overall results, there is reason for optimism in the future. First, Guerrero and Kirk’s recent performances. Second, the hitters other than Springer & Co. have performed well (109 wRC+). Third, the ZiPS DC rest-of-season model projects Toronto will produce a 115 wRC+. Although models are not infallible, ZiPS DC has a track record that should bolster the expectations of Blue Jay fans and Management.
However, management should make roster and batting order changes. Horwitz is a better left-handed option than Vogelbach. Also, there may be opportunities in the trade market to add a bat. Additionally, John Schneider should move Springer and Bichette down in the batting order until they demonstrate they will contribute more with the bat than they have to date. These changes and the ZiPS DC rest-of-season projections would be reasons for optimism.
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