Trent Grisham’s Breakout Season Might Be A Fluke

Resigning center fielder Trent Grisham was one of the first orders of business for the New York Yankees this offseason. Even now, with the year coming to a close, it remains one of their only big moves amid a quiet offseason for not just the Yankees, but most of MLB. Grisham, who had quite a surprising breakout on offense last season, will return to center field in the Bronx after the Yankees granted him the qualifying offer in November. But don’t let the former Gold Glove winner’s 34 homers and .811 OPS deceive you. At the same time, Grisham did have a fantastic year on offense, but underlying metrics don’t necessarily suggest that he will be able to replicate that success (at least not fully) next season.

Trent Grisham’s Breakout Season Might Be A Fluke

Grisham, who was a perennial contender for a Gold Glove in center thanks to his outstanding defense, actually appears to have sacrificed some of his prowess in the field in exchange for more power at the plate. According to Baseball Savant, Grisham’s outs above average (OAA) in 2025 was -2, which is far worse than his total mark of 31 from 2021-2024. Perhaps Grisham purposefully focused on improving his game at the plate at the expense of defense, but either way, his fielding certainly took a step backward last season.

Perennial Power?

Perhaps surprisingly, Grisham has always squared up/barreled the ball and rarely chased, even before 2025. What changed for the former Milwaukee Brewer and San Diego Padre, instead, was a large mixture of minor adjustments. The only significant improvements Grisham seems to have made were cutting down on strikeouts and slightly increasing his bat speed (and, consequently, his average exit velocity).

He has always had a bit of power; the difference between last season and each one before is that Grisham made major improvements upon the smaller aspects of his game, allowing his sweet left-handed swing to finally shine. Still, it’s hard to believe that he’ll be able to give the Yankees another 34 homers, 87 runs, and 74 RBI’s. This looks even more unlikely considering Grisham’s career batting average of .218, as well as the fact that more than a third of his career home run total came last season.

2026 Predictions

With a salary of $22 million, Grisham can be very sure that the Yankees expect him to give them some solid production on both sides of the ball. Odds are that Grisham doesn’t have the same season as last year, but pitchers should still be wary of his surprising power. Baseball Reference predicts that Grisham will slash .224/.328/.418 with 22 home runs, 61 RBI’s, and 125 strikeouts to 64 walks; these numbers shouldn’t end up being too far off, but it’s essential to consider that Grisham’s role will also depend on how the rest of New York’s offseason goes, in addition to his individual performance.

If the Yankees do end up signing another outfielder (i.e., Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker), then Jasson Dominguez will have nowhere to play. If Grisham isn’t doing too well, then the Yankees might try to slot in their former no. 1 prospect in center field. As unlikely as that is to happen, it is almost impossible to predict whether or not a breakout is truly a fluke or not, and Trent Grisham is no different.