Two AL contenders interested in pair of Cardinals pitchers

As John Denton, Mark Feinsand and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reported, the Tigers and Guardians have expressed interest in trading for Cardinals starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. Both pitchers seemed to be likely trade candidates entering the offseason, but this is the first report linking either pitcher to specific suitors.

As the Cardinals look to shed payroll and kickstart a retooling effort, all their veteran players look like possible trade chips. Nolan Arenado has generated much of the buzz so far, but his contract isn’t the only one St. Louis could look to offload. After Arenado, the next highest-paid players on the roster are Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas and Willson Contreras. However, all three have no-trade clauses in their contracts and have expressed a desire to stay in St. Louis. Thus, Matz and Fedde could be the next players, and the president of baseball operations, John Mozeliak, looks to flip. Those trades wouldn’t come with as much salary relief — Matz will make $12.5M and Fedde will make $7.5M in 2025 — but they might be easier to pull off. Not only is less money involved, but neither Matz nor Fedde has the right to reject a trade.

Any trade involving Matz would likely be a salary dump. In other words, the Cardinals should not expect to get any notable players back in return. As he enters his age-34 campaign, Matz is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. In 12 games (seven starts), he pitched to a 5.08 ERA and 4.63 SIERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was the lowest it’s ever been. To make matters worse, he missed four months of the year nursing a lower back strain.

While Matz has been a productive starting pitcher in the not-so-distant past, he has struggled with injuries and inconsistency throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL every season since his rookie year and has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. His 3.86 ERA and 4.19 SIERA over 105 innings in 2023 are a reminder that he can be a valuable contributor to a big-league rotation. Yet, as Matz enters his mid-thirties, concerns about his durability and potential decline will only increase. All that to say, his $12.5M salary is probably more than he could command on the open market. If the Cardinals want another team to take on that salary, they won’t be able to ask for much in return.

As for Fedde, the Cardinals wouldn’t get as much salary relief in a trade, but they could bring back some talent to help in 2025 and beyond. Although Fedde has had injury and inconsistency problems, he is two years younger than Matz and coming off of two consecutive strong seasons. He also comes $5M cheaper.

Fedde was little more than an innings eater for the Nationals from 2017-22. However, he reinvented himself in the KBO in 2023, winning the MVP Award and signing a two-year, $15M deal with the White Sox last winter. While he wasn’t an MVP-caliber player in 2024, he produced the best season of his MLB career, pitching 177 1/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 4.19 SIERA. He didn’t excel in any one area, but he limited walks and hard contact at better-than-average rates and tossed at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts. If he can repeat that performance in 2025, he’d be an upgrade for every contending team’s starting rotation.

Regarding contending teams, Cleveland and Detroit have two of the weaker rotations. With Shane Bieber still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Guardians only have three locks for the rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Ben Lively. The Tigers are in a similar position with several question marks after Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson and Alex Cobb. It’s still surprising to see these two teams linked to Fedde and Matz. During the Winter Meetings, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers were not “planning to pursue additional starting pitchers” after signing Cobb. He quotes general manager Jeff Greenberg, who said, “I think we’re probably done for now.”

As for the Guardians, it’s a question of money, as usual. It’s especially rare to see this team spend significant money on pitching because they have done a good job developing talented arms internally. Thus, Matz, in particular, seems to be an unexpected target; he would become the highest-paid pitcher on the roster. However, a deal with Cleveland could make more sense if St. Louis is willing to eat some salary to receive a more talented return package.