Two distinct paths the Mets offseason can take

While the team could address both of their big needs by signing players from each bucket, such as Valdez and Tucker, it seems unlikely Stearns would prefer such an approach of locking in more high-salary contracts than necessary. Given that possibility, the Mets have been combing the trade market for both starters (with Freddy Peralta a notable target) and the outfield (Luis Robert Jr. and Lars Nootbaar have both drawn ties to the Mets).

The Mets did hold talks with the Miami Marlins regarding a potential deal for Edward Cabrera, with Mets On SI's Pat Ragazzo reporting that the Mets balked at a potential package headlined by Brett Baty and outfielder A.J. Ewing.

Context clues would point to the Mets either signing a starter and trading for an outfielder or doing the inverse. Each path has its own pros and cons, but one offers much more upside for the 2026 Mets than the other.

The Mets' Two Paths Have Very Clear Differences

To begin this exercise, we'll take a look at the route where the Mets sign a starter and trade for an outfielder. The pitcher most frequently linked to the Mets on the free agent market is Valdez, whose market seems to be mostly between the Mets and Orioles at this juncture.

Valdez would offer the kind of innings stability the Mets need at the top of their rotation, throwing at least 176.1 innings in each of the past four years. Only two Mets starters, David Peterson and Clay Holmes, managed to exceed the 162 inning threshold necessary to qualfiy for the ERA title in 2025.

Assuming a contract for Valdez is somewhere in the neighborhood of three years and at least $35 million a year, the Mets would have room in their budget to circle back to the White Sox and complete a long-rumored Robert deal. Robert would presumably slot in as the Mets' center fielder and require a lower prospect cost than a starting pitching trade, but is far from a sure thing after a rough two seasons for Chicago.

The other route would be a bolder swing that sees Stearns find a way to snag Tucker or Bellinger, giving the Mets a much-needed corner outfielder that can protect Juan Soto in the batting order. Bellinger is seeking a deal of at least seven years and close to $36-37 million annually, which may make simply paying more money for the better player in Tucker a play that Stearns can find strong value in.

Signing Tucker would likely mean the Mets spend at least $40 million annually for him, making a lower-cost starter via trade a compelling alternative. The best fit here would be Peralta, whose $8 million salary for 2026 lines up nicely with what the Mets' projected budget is.

The acquisition cost for Peralta would be higher because Milwaukee can incite a bidding war for his services, but the Mets have the kind of young controllable starting pitching that the Brewers would require in a deal. The Mets could either move one of Jonah Tong or Brandon Sproat with one of their excess young infielders (Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña, Ronny Mauricio) or go with a package of David Peterson, Christian Scott and Jett Williams if they want to protect their top three young starters.

Landing Peralta would give the Mets a bona fide ace who may be more open to a contract extension than Tarik Skubal, who is certain to test the free agent market with Scott Boras as his agent. The talent cost to land Peralta would be significant, but it could be more easily justified if the Mets can turn Peralta from a rental into a key rotation piece for the next several years.

The cost for the Tucker/Peralta path is more exorbitant in terms of money and trade pieces but it offers a much higher upside squad than the Valdez/Robert scenario. A team with its big free agent pickup in Valdez probably has a solid floor of a Wild Card team but is less likely to close the gap on the Dodgers or Phillies as the Tucker/Peralta team.

Stearns has a lot of options to pursue, but these two paths are the most likely ways the Mets' offseason comes to an end. Time will tell which one ends up coming to fruition.

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