Unfuzzing the Diamondbacks’ Outfield Picture

Carroll is a lock, as long as he’s healthy. Everyone knows what to expect from him. As for Thomas and Lawlar, they’re more so locks because Arizona does not have many others who could replace them.

This is now year four of hoping Thomas improves on offense, following a career-best 82 OPS+ season in 2025.

Thomas has needed to make adjustments at the plate for years to make the most of his power and contact ability, but thus far, he hasn’t been able to make those adjustments stick long term. That’s why he routinely hits the ball on the ground, but hasn’t been able to pull the ball in the air. In fact, he hits opposite fly balls more than to his pull side (16.2% to 11.5% in 2025). Plus, his defense has declined each year since 2023.

He still has plenty of potential, but it appears that Arizona is favoring giving the unknown in Lawlar the keys to center field the majority of the time. That will allow Thomas to roam around the outfield and serve as a potential fourth outfielder when everyone comes back healthy.

Speaking of Lawlar, he himself has a lot to prove this season. He needs to prove he can hit major league pitching and that he can stay healthy for a whole season.

In 2023, he made his MLB debut but only played in 119 total games between the minors and the majors. In 2024, he missed considerable time and appeared in just 23 games across multiple minor league levels. In 2025, he missed time once again, only playing in 91 total games between Triple-A and MLB.

A full season from Lawlar would go a long way toward helping him establish himself as a viable outfield option and potential MLB bat. He also needs to show that he can hit breaking pitches and sliders and that he won’t strike out 35% of the time.

Striking out more than one-third of the time is not going to get it done. It’s just not playable. The same is true for an .xBA below the Mendoza line. So far, Lawlar has demonstrated an inability to hit the ball hard or on the barrel.

However, he has demolished minor league pitching, so there is some belief and hope that he can figure it out. After all, he’s only 23 years old with just 108 MLB plate appearances to his name.

This year is a make-or-break year for him, and he needs to reward Arizona’s faith in him; the team has kept him around this long and devoted so many resources to him.

Lawlar started to show some of his potential over the final few weeks of the season in 2025, and he’ll need to keep it up in 2026.

Over his final 41 plate appearances, an admittedly extremely small sample, he hit .333 with an OPS of .918. He came just shy of hitting a home run multiple times, and had seven doubles, five RBI, and two stolen bases. He struck out 10 times, which is still quite high, but he did draw three walks.

The sky is the limit for Lawlar; he just needs to stay on the field and iron out some issues at the plate.

Contenders To Make the Opening Day Roster

Jorge Barrosa, Ryan Waldschmidt, Tommy Troy, Tim Tawa

First up is Barrosa, who has left a lot to be desired at the plate during his short time in the majors. Over 77 plate appearances last year, he had a 2 wRC+, where 100 is league average. That’s just not playable, no matter how good his defense is – and it is extremely good.

He must impress this spring training with the bat to make the roster, and if he does make the roster, the team badly needs a lot more than what he’s done to this point.

Tawa is a strong utility player who can play five or six different positions on the diamond. He’s become pretty good with the glove at each of them, which should give him a leg up on the competition.

Tawa also has plenty of power. He’s got a good eye at the plate, but the issue is contact. He struck out too much and didn’t show a good ability to hit for average over his rookie year. However, he can be a solid backup player capable of a few big swings a year. Plus, there’s always the chance for more if he can reach his potential.

Troy is a second baseman who can also play left or center field. The outfield is not an ideal spot for him, but he’s able to do it at an MLB level. The question is the bat. He’s hit quite well the last year or so and has a lot of potential to become an everyday player, or at least a utility player in the majors. Is he ready? That’s the other question, as one doesn’t want to rush him. Hopefully for Arizona, spring training will tell if he can make the jump.

Waldschmidt is the star prospect, the one with All-Star potential that will be an everyday player in the outfield next to Carroll for the next half-decade quite soon. However, he’s yet to play in Triple-A.

Is it worth rushing the young player, or is it better to let him mature some more before unleashing him on MLB pitching?

He’s got the eye at the plate, the power, the swing, and the glove. It’s just a question of how he does in spring, and whether it’s worth the developmental risk of him potentially being overmatched too quickly. Still, the D-backs have suggested he has the chance to make the majors on Opening Day.

Backups Who Could Make the Majors

Kristian Robinson, A.J. Vukovich

Robinson is a former top prospect who has battled back from some significant setbacks in order to be a potential MLB player. He has power in spades but will have to work on his contact skills in order to find his way to Chase Field.

He’s set to play for Great Britain in the World Baseball Classic, where he could showcase his skills to prove that he’s closer to the majors than previously believed. The team believes in him, and he’s going to get a shot to prove it this year.

The same is true of Vukovich, who has plenty of power but big questions regarding his ability to make contact. If he can prove he’s able to cut down on the strikeouts and improve his swing, then he could get a cameo in 2026 out in left field or right field ahead of competing for regular playing time in 2027.

Vukovich needs a big spring to jump ahead of some of the others, but he’s certainly got the ability to do just that.

Is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. the X-Factor?

Gurriel has been charging like a freight train in his recovery from an ACL surgery on September 11, 2025. Many thought this would mean him missing at least the first half of the season, but his timeline has changed to him missing as little as a few weeks.

He’s had an unbelievable recovery and is weeks ahead of where most would be, thanks to an intense rehab with his trainer in Miami.

Now, while Gurriel wants to be ready for Opening Day, it’s more likely that he’ll be back toward the end of April, though it could be even sooner, provided no setbacks happen. There’s also a chance Arizona goes conservative and pushes him to early May, but regardless, he’s going to be ready far sooner than anyone originally expected.

He’s not going to play every day, and it’s likely that Arizona uses him at DH a lot in the beginning to get him acclimated and ready to go. However, his bat would be a potent addition to the lineup.

What’s more, on the days that he plays in the outfield, he’ll bring another veteran presence that knows how to play left field. He is the x-factor of the outfield, especially because of his contract status; he is playing for a new free agent deal or to have his club option for 2027 exercised. When he’s at full strength, he should be Arizona’s second-best bat in the outfield. He’s a presence that will be sorely missed and extremely appreciated when he returns.

Honorable mentions who, with a massive spring training, might have a shot: Oscar Mercado, Gavin Conticello.