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- May 15, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Trevor Williams (32) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Preview, Prediction & Odds | May 22nd, 2025

Originally posted on Total Apex Fantasy Sports
By Christopher Cash | Last updated May 22, 2025 2:44 PM ET

Washington Nationals (22-27) vs. Atlanta Braves (24-24)

Game Details: Thursday 22nd @ 6:45 pm EST

Location: Nationals Park

Trevor Williams (R) vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (R)

Where to Watch: MASN 2, FanDuel Sport Network South

Thursday night’s matchup between the Nationals and Braves at Nationals Park is a sharp bet for underbettors. At a complete game total of 8.5 and a First 5 Innings line under 4.5, our model sees heavy value on both unders. We have the projected runs at 7.805 runs and a full-game probability hit of 62%, thanks to pitching and weather conditions suppressing the offense.

The market overestimates run production in this game, where we, as smart bettors, scoop up the value. Let’s explore it here in Preview, Prediction, and Odds.

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total Runs	Money Line
	+1.5 (-128)	Over 8.5 (-106)	+130
	-1.5 (+106)	Under 8.5 (-114)	-154

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Apex Tale of The Tape

	*Team Stats*
4.24	Runs/G	4.13
.242	BA	.246
.312	OBP	.298
.390	SLG	.390
.702	OPS	.688
51	HR	51
49	SB	27
5.28	ERA	3.78
1.45	WHIP	1.24
7.9	K/9	8.7
.981	Fielding Percentage	.983
15	Saves	15

Projected Starting Pitchers H2H

Trevor Williams	*Player Stats*	AJ Smith-Shawver
2-5	W/L	3-2
5.91	ERA	2.33
45.2	IP	38.2
1.53	WHIP	1.24
38	K	40
3	BB	17

Key Stats

May 15, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver (32) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver might not be in optimal form, but he has shown signs of dominance in short stints. His 2.33 ERA proves it.

The Braves hit under 58% of the time, thanks to a cold spell in the middle of their batting order for a mediocre 3.91 runs per game. Our projection gives the Braves 4.15 runs today due to season-long metrics, 63-degree temps, 11MPH crosswinds from left to right, and a 31% chance of rain. The weather plays a part in this. Here’s hoping the weather experts’ predictions are as on point as ours are in the sports betting category.

Washington Nationals

Trevor Williams looks gnarly in the ERA department. But look a little closer, and you will find a piece of magical value. The Nationals have averaged a mere 4.31 runs a game and hit the under in 50% of those. More significantly, Williams does well in the first five-inning scenarios.

Atlanta’s offense is already slightly below average and matches up against a Nationals team that rarely attacks with slugging at home.

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends

	*Betting Stats*
5-5	W/L 10	2
25-24-0	ATS	22-26
23-24-2	O/U	18-26-4

Prediction

This matchup presents a correlation value with both starters providing early command and neither offense showing a trend for high scoring. Our Monte Carlo simulations put a 62% true implied hit of the full game under, and 61% of the first five innings under.

Factor in conditions conducive to suppression and pace-projection slowdowns, and this is a premium spot for bettors to bask in the sun of intelligent under bets. Combine the game-specific context and ROI-based model simulations for today’s Preview, Prediction, and Odds.