Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction, pick and MLB odds for 8/13

Nationals vs. Orioles Odds

Tuesday, Aug. 13

6:35 p.m. ET

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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Nationals vs. Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers

D.J. James’s Nationals vs. Orioles Preview

Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Offense About to Explode

Irvin has a 3.75 ERA and 4.09 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are both below average, but he ranks in the top half of the league in ground-ball rate. He also walks less than 6% of batters. While he's given up nine earned over 10 2/3 innings pitched in August, he can get back to normal in this outing if he keeps the ball on the ground.

The Nationals have hit lefties well in the last month. They own a 120 wRC+, 6.1% walk rate, and 17.5% strikeout rate, with six bats above a .315 xwOBA. James Wood seems to be hitting like the prospect who was so highly-touted, so he's a great boost to the batting order. Richards is nothing to write home about, so the Nats should be primed for an offensive explosion.

The Nats’ bullpen has been weak in the last month. They have a 4.52 xFIP as a unit with an 18.5% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. They have three arms below a 4.00 xFIP, but this is the more unreliable portion of the team, and thus a hard reason to fade the Orioles moneyline.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Baltimore Hurting on the Mound

Richards has a 4.71 ERA and 5.22 xERA. Like Irvin, he induces an above-average number of grounders, but his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are far below average. His strikeout rate is 17.4% with a walk rate of around 10%, which are awful numbers that should provide a boost to the Nats. He has also allowed seven earned in 9 1/3 innings, so the negative regression seems to be hitting at an inopportune time for Orioles fans.

The Orioles have a 125 wRC+, 9.9% walk rate, and 22.5% strikeout rate. They have eight active hitters with a .315+ xwOBA and a couple of others with fewer than 10 plate appearances against righties. Because of this, Irvin may not be reliable enough to back. Baltimore is hitting too well, even though he can keep the ball on the ground.

In relief, the Orioles have a collective xFIP of 4.16. They have a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. They have five active arms below a 4.00 xFIP. They have some crucial injuries to relievers, so this is one reason the bullpen has fallen off in the last month.

Nationals vs. Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis

Irvin can bounce back, but the Orioles are too good hitting the ball. The Nationals, however, get to face the far worse pitcher in Trevor Richards. His peripherals are awful, and the Nationals make enough contact to give him trouble.

They have a deep enough and young, talented group of hitters to put together more than four runs early. They do not hit righties as well, but since Richards is a southpaw, there is value in the Nats to score four or more runs.

Moneyline

+145 (No)

Run Line (Spread)

+1.5 (No)

Over/Under

9 (No)