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What Can the Pirates Expect from Esmerlyn Valdez?
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What Can the Pirates Expect from Esmerlyn Valdez?

Originally posted on Just Baseball  |  By Jay Staph  |  Last updated Oct 26, 2025 12:28 PM ET

One of the main positive takeaways from the time Ben Cherington has been the Pittsbugh Pirates‘ general manager has been the way they’ve developed talented arms all throughout the system. Up until this season, they hadn’t seen the same results with their offensive talent.

Prior to the 2025 season, the biggest question facing the Pirates’ system was their lack of impactful hitting prospects, as the majority of their top-end talent was on the mound. This totally changed during the season, with their offensive prospects taking massive leaps forward across the board.

While the majority of attention was given to Just Baseball’s number two prospect, Konnor Griffin, outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez‘s season slipped through the cracks. After being relatively unknown coming into the season, Valdez quietly had one of the most underrated offensive seasons in the minors this season.

Of course, with a breakout of this magnitude, fans naturally began to wonder how high his ceiling really was, and where he fit in the Pirates’ plans.

These questions aren’t the easiest to answer, as hitters in the system usually run into some trouble adjusting to Triple-A pitching and when they eventually join the major league club. Valdez barely spent 50 games at Double-A this year, meaning his largest challenges still loom ahead.

Taking this out of the equation, the 2025 season has been massive for Valdez, as he went from an unknown slugger to one of the most intriguing pieces of this farm system in the span of a few months.

Let’s dive into his 2025 season and attempt to get an idea of the type of player Valdez could be moving forward.

Valdez’s Offensive Breakout

After slugging 22 home runs while posting a 130 wRC+ through 107 games at Low-A last season, the Pirates decided Valdez was ready for a promotion. They sent Valdez to High-A Greensboro following Spring Training, and he didn’t waste much time making his impact felt.

The 21-year-old only lasted 72 games at the level, as he dominated nearly every pitcher he saw. He slashed .303/.385/.592 with 20 home runs and a 176 wRC+ during his stint at High-A, taking strides forward in nearly every area of his game. He was even named the South Atlantic League MVP despite playing only 72 games in the league.

While his power increase looks impressive on the surface, it’s important to remember that the Greensboro Grasshoppers play in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minors. Prospects in the system often see inflated power numbers in High-A before taking a step backwards once they reach Double-A.

For Valdez, his power numbers weren’t the area that caught my attention the most, as his plate discipline drastically improved. For example, Valdez honed in his approach, cutting his strikeout numbers down by large margins. His strikeout rate fell from 30.6% the year prior, to 24.5% during this 72-game stint.

As if his strikeout numbers weren’t a huge indication of the steps he’d taken forward in his approach, his OBP and wOBA both took huge steps forward as well. His OBP jumped over 30 points, and his wOBA saw a drastic, 64-point improvement.

Overall, despite the hitter-friendly environment raising questions about Valdez’s true strides forward offensively, his plate discipline improvements were enough to show me that this version of Valdez wasn’t a fluke, and he proved that once he was promoted to Double-A Altoona.

During his time in Altoona, Valdez continued his dominance. He slashed .260/.363/.409 with six homers and a 126 wRC+ during his 51 games at Double-A. Valdez also earned himself a trip to the Future’s Game shortly after his promotion, a much-deserved nod considering how he hit up to that point.

One of the biggest takeaways from Valdez’s time in Altoona was how he held onto his plate discipline improvements. While his OBP and wOBA took small steps backward, his strikeout rate only increased by 0.2% while his walk rate spiked to 11.6%.

After being able to watch Valdez hit in person during his time in Double-A, I can attest that his offensive profile is as impressive as the numbers show. The sound the ball made off his bat was different, as he regularly showed plus power to all fields.

Now that the regular season is over, the Pirates decided to send Valdez to this year’s Arizona Fall League, and so far, he’s been the league’s best hitter through his first 11 games.

He’s slashed .517/.674/.1.379 with eight homers and an OPS of 2.053. To put in perspective just how impressive this stretch has been, only Barry Bonds in 2004 had a higher OPS in an eight-game stint than Valdez had through his first eight games in the fall league.

Thanks to this performance, Valdez is now starting to see some serious recognition on the national level. After all, the Arizona Fall League contains some of the best prospects and upcoming names in the sport, which has made this run from Valdez even more notable.

Valdez’s season has yet to wrap up, as the Arizona Fall League doesn’t wrap up until the middle of November. Even though it hasn’t fully concluded, Valdez’s breakout to this point has been an important part of the Pirates’ 2025 season beyond the major league roster.

How High Is Valdez’s Ceiling?

Now that we’ve taken a look at Valdez’s breakout and the tremendous offensive numbers he’s racked up this season, it’s a little easier to try to predict his future ceiling. It helps that Valdez spent time between two levels this season, especially because the step from High-A to Double-A is known to be a tricky jump in the Pirates’ system.

It’s pretty clear when looking at the numbers that Valdez possesses some unreal power when he gets into a groove. After all, he’s managed to blast eight homers in 11 games during his time in the Arizona Fall League, an unreal pace.

Had Valdez played a full 162-game season this year, he was on pace for 34 home runs. I feel confident that Valdez has 30-homer potential moving forward if everything goes right for him. This would be massive for the Pirates’ offense, as they haven’t had a 30-home-run hitter since Josh Bell in 2019.

In addition to his elite raw power, Valdez’s strides forward with his plate discipline give me a good amount of courage that he won’t be a one-dimensional hitter. Instead of selling out exclusively for power, it’s reasonable to assume he could post an OBP near the .360 threshold at the big league level with a wRC+ near the 120 to 130 range.

If Valdez truly does reach this potential, it’s reasonable to assume his ceiling could be something similar to what we saw from Athletics outfielder Tyler Soderstrom this season. Soderstrom finished this season slashing .276/.346/.474 with 25 home runs, a 125 wRC+, and a 3.4 fWAR.

Of course, this is just a guess based on the early trends and tools we’ve seen Valdez showcase throughout his time in the lower minors. We may see him post even better numbers in the future, as he has an immense amount of potential moving forward. However, this comp feels very reachable given the season Valdez just had.

Where Does Valdez Slot Into the Pirates’ Future Plans?

Given the current state of the Pirates’ offense, Valdez won’t have a difficult time making his way into this lineup if he comes out of the gate hot next season. Before Valdez’s hot stretch in the AFL, it was a reasonable guess to assume he’d return to Double-A to get some more games under his belt.

With how Valdez has hit in Arizona, this might no longer be the case. Valdez has proven his ability to hit better arms through his time at the Fall League and in his time at Double-A, and he may even start the season in Triple-A. Regardless, he’ll likely find himself in Triple-A early on next season.

If all goes to plan, Valdez could easily become a middle-of-the-order bat at some point next season. As of right now, he’d likely find himself in a corner outfield position or as the team’s designated hitter. No matter where he plays, Valdez’s main tool will be his bat, and the sooner he makes his way into this lineup, the better.

Adding a hitter with this much potential to the second-worst offensive team by wRC+ this year would be massive. This type of production could play a massive role in putting this team one step closer to having a chance to contend, with even league-average numbers being a huge step forward for this team.

However, it’s clear that no matter where Valdez plays in the field, he’s quickly become a huge piece of their plans. With the organization still showing little willingness to upgrade outside of their system, a player like Valdez could be one of the only hopes for their offense moving forward.

Although this was truly Valdez’s first season in the spotlight, we saw him take immense strides forward in all areas of his game. With the well-rounded offensive profile he showcased between High-A and Double-A, the sky is the limit for his future.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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