What would a Bo Bichette contract extension look like?

Without question, the biggest question looming over the Toronto Blue Jays in the short term is whether they can re-sign their shortstop, Bo Bichette. They extended him a qualifying offer, but that’s merely a formality before he likely declines and declares himself a free agent.

At the very least, Bichette has earned the right to test the waters of free agency to see what’s out there. Ross Atkins admitted as much in his end of season press conference yesterday, saying the Blue Jays would be engaged in negotiations with Bichette’s camp, but that he deserves to explore his options beyond Toronto.

Unlike Vladimir Guerrero Jr. earlier this year, Bichette never played hardball with the Blue Jays or put a deadline on potential contract negotiations. Despite declaring his adoration for the organization, it always felt like Bichette was at least going to dip his toe into the free agent pool.

But now comes the point of actually putting pen to paper on an offer if the Blue Jays want to keep Bichette for the long term. Bichette explained: “I said I want to be here from the beginning,” which is a negotiation tactic, or he’s shooting straight from the hip. Then it’s up to his agent and the Blue Jays to hammer out a contract.

Unlike most free agents this year, there’s no benchmark for Bichette’s value on the open market. Projections for Bichette’s next contract have been wildly varied, from the five year/$130 million predicted by Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, to seven years and around $200 million projected by FanGraphs. Even Spotrac lists Bichette’s market value at eight years and $186 million.

Willy Adames’ seven-year/$182 million deal with the San Francisco Giants is the most recent comparable that was signed last offseason, but Adames and Bichette are an apples-to-oranges comparison with Adames providing more value on defence, while Bichette offers more upside on offense.

Data via Spotrac

There most certainly isn’t a Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Corey Seager or Bobby Whitt Jr.-esque contract out there for Bichette in free agency, but five years and $130 million feels extremely low for a player who nearly led the league for the third time in his career, despite missing the last three weeks of the regular season with his knee injury.

Another factor that can change the calculus is whether Bichette is adamant about signing as a shortstop or a second baseman. Even though it was a small sample size in the World Series, Bichette played second base capably and got a glimpse into what it might be like to change positions full time.

If he’s willing to slide over to second permanently, that could make Bichette the richest second baseman in the game, with Marcus Semien’s seven-year/$175 deal being the largest signed by a player to play the position. That’s why it feels like anywhere in that neighbourhood — seven years and $175 million — is the absolute floor of what Bichette could fetch in free agency.

The fact of the matter is there aren’t many big-money second baseman contracts out there on the market, which could be one reason Bichette insists he can and should play the shortstop position. Because a $175 million ceiling as a second baseman is a hell of a lot lower than a $300+ million ceiling as a shortstop.

Most would agree he’s not among the upper echelon of shortstops in the league, but heading into his age 28 season, he’s still fairly young and should be able to captain the infield for several more years before an eventual shift to the keystone.

During the World Series, the Blue Jays got a window into a best-case scenario middle infield defensive alignment, with Andres Gimenez at shortstop and Bichette at second base. To a man, I think even Bichette would admit that having Gimenez at short gives the Blue Jays the best chance to win, but all parties involved may not see that perspective.

Earlier in his career, Bichette was headed on a Lindor or Seager-type trajectory, with a $300 million contract not out of the question. But injuries in the last three consecutive seasons knocked down Bichette’s earning potential a few pegs, but it’s hard to see him asking for anything under $200 million from either the Blue Jays or another team.

Bichette is young for a free agent shortstop and he answered a lot of lingering questions about his offensive ability this year, basically back to usual at the plate thanks to a 134 wRC+ season in 139 games. But as much as he claims to love the Blue Jays and wants to stay in Toronto, don’t expect him to take a hometown discount.

All it takes is one filthy rich owner like Steve Cohen to come over the top rope and put a Godfather offer on the table that Bichette can’t refuse. There are many contenders looking for a franchise shortstop, whether it’s the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Seattle Mariners, or heck, even the Atlanta Braves as a dark horse landing spot for Bichette.

With a qualifying offer of $22.05 million on the table, it’s hard to see him refusing a deal that’s anything less than a $22 million AAV, which puts a potential 9-year deal at $225 million total.

That’s probably a longer term than the Blue Jays would prefer to stomach, but in order to keep this window of contention open for the foreseeable future, it takes big money to convince big talent to either stay or come to Toronto. If you want to split hairs and knock down the AAV a bit, 10 years at $240 million might be palatable as well, with most of these modern shortstop contracts in the seven-year to ten-year range.

Unlike negotiations with Vladdy earlier this year, it might only cost the Blue Jays half as much to retain Bichette’s services in the long term. If both parties are in the same ballpark, it feels like a contract should get done to keep Bichette in Toronto.