What's next for Twins after collapsing down the stretch?

What once seemed to be a promising season for the Twins is coming to a devastating end, as the club was officially eliminated from postseason contention last night after a free fall in the standings spurred on by their brutal 9-16 record so far this September. While Minnesota entered the month with a 91.7% chance to make the postseason according to Fangraphs, they’ll sit on the sidelines this October just one year after breaking a 20-year drought without a victory in the postseason.

With that being said, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic suggested in a report Saturday that both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli (as well as team president Dave St. Peter, who handles business operations for the club) appear unlikely to be let go by the club as things stand. Falvey took the helm of baseball operations for the Twins prior to the 2017 season and the team has generally been successful during his tenure with four postseason appearances and five seasons with an above .500 record during his eight years with the club’s front office. For his part, Baldelli joined the club prior to the 2019 season and has led the club to three postseason appearances and four records over .500 in his six years in the Minnesota dugout.

That’s not to say no change is coming to the organization, however. According to Gleeman, it’s “expected” that changes will be made this winter that could impact high-ranking members of both the front office and coaching staff. Of note, Gleeman did not report on the status of GM Thad Levine. Levine has served as the No. 2 to Falvey throughout his tenure with the Twins and seemingly entered the year without a contract for the 2025 season. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Levine depart the club if the Twins were to shake up their front office, particularly given the fact that Levine was a finalist for the top job in Boston last winter before the Red Sox ultimately hired Craig Breslow and could once again look to pursue a top job elsewhere this offseason.

Disappointing as the 2024 season was for Twins fans, it’s fair to point out that the club’s struggles can’t be blamed entirely on the front office or coaching staff. After all, club ownership slashed payroll by $30M coming off the club’s successful 2023 season, not only forcing the club to enter 2024 without replacing 2023 AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray but also leaving them unable to make moves of significance to improve the roster beyond adding veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, a move that needed to be paired with a deal to ship out longtime infielder Jorge Polanco.

Unfortunately for fans in Minnesota, Gleeman suggests there’s little reason to believe payroll will increase headed into 2025. Instead, he notes that the club’s revenue has landed below expectations this year and could prompt even more cuts. That could leave the club needing to trade away veterans on guaranteed contracts over the winter in order to improve other areas of the roster and Gleeman suggests that right-hander Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vazquez could be the club’s most expendable pieces if such a situation were to come to pass.

Paddack, 28, returned to the club after Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly all of his 2023 season. He made 17 starts for the Twins this year but struggled with lackluster results, posting a 4.99 ERA despite a solid enough 4.18 FIP. It’s easy to see how Paddack could be an attractive trade piece for pitching-hungry clubs this winter, particularly those with budget constraints of their own. After all, he’s set to make just $7.5M in 2025. Even back-of-the-rotation arms have typically garnered guarantees north of $10M on the open market in recent years, so $7.5M for Paddack could be viewed as a bargain even in spite of injury concerns thanks to the tantalizing upside he flashed during his time with the Padres.

Vazquez, on the other hand, appears unlikely to bring back much outside of salary relief for Minnesota. The 34-year-old veteran entered free agency following the 2022 season with a strong defensive reputation and a solid 95 wRC+ in four years since taking over as the primary catcher in Boston. Unfortunately, things haven’t worked out well since he signed with the Twins on a three-year deal prior to the 2023 season. In Minnesota, Vazquez has hit just .224/.267/.324 (64 wRC+) over the past two years while ceding the regular duties behind the plate to breakout youngster Ryan Jeffers. He still remains a stalwart defender behind the plate, but his lackluster offense and hefty $10M salary for next year would make him unattractive as a trade candidate unless the Twins were to sweeten the deal with either cash or additional talent.