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What’s Wrong With Joey Ortiz?

Originally posted on Just Baseball | By Joey Peterson | Last updated Jun 12, 2025 10:34 AM ET

Whoever ended up being the starting shortstop for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2025 was going to have substantial shoes to fill.

Not only would that player be tasked with replacing Willy Adames, one of the best shortstops to come through the organization, but they would be doing so with a ball club that is looking to compete and is coming off of back-to-back division titles and 90-plus win seasons.

Ultimately, after putting together a strong rookie campaign a season ago, it was Joey Ortiz who would be named as Adames’ successor. He checked all the right boxes last season, and he appeared primed to slide over from third base and continue his progression as the ball club’s shortstop.

Flash forward a few months, and the results haven’t been as strong for Ortiz in 2025. For an offense that has struggled with consistency this season, Ortiz’s lack of impact at the back of the order has played a big part in that.

All stats were taken prior to play on June 11.

A Poor Start to 2025 for Joey Ortiz

When the Brewers acquired Ortiz for Corbin Burnes last offseason, many figured that he would be named the shortstop of the future in due time. He spent his rookie campaign manning third base while Adames was still in the picture, and by all accounts he passed that test with flying colors.

Ortiz put up 3.1 fWAR while playing a stellar defensive third base (+8 DRS, +11 OAA) and posting above-average wRC+ (104) and OPS (.726) marks. Combine his polished approach with his speed and extra-base hit potential, and it was clear that Ortiz had the tools to succeed at this level.

While his defense and speed have still shined through this season, things haven’t looked the same at the plate.

Among qualified batters, Ortiz has the third-worst wRC+ (48) and OPS (.516) in Major League Baseball to this point. Among qualified MLB shortstops, his fWAR of -0.1 is the lowest mark in baseball.

For such a well-rounded, toolsy player like Ortiz, those types of results are rather jarring.

What’s Gone Wrong for Joey Ortiz?

Despite his dreadful surface-level numbers, it’s not as if Ortiz is getting his doors blown off by opposing pitching. In fact, he’s striking out just 16.6% of the time, which places him in the top 25% of baseball. That mark is actually 3.6% better than his number in 2024.

Moreover, Ortiz is whiffing just 16.8% of the time, a mark that is in the 87th percentile of MLB hitters, and that number is actually an improvement from a season ago. It’s encouraging to see that he’s not getting completely outmatched in the batter’s box.

Ortiz has been a bit more aggressive with his approach this season, though. His overall swing rate is up nearly five percent, and his pitches per plate appearance went from 4.15 in 2024 to 3.76 in 2025. Furthermore, he’s expanding the zone more than he was a season go, but his chase rate is still right around league average despite the 3.5% increase.

Still, while there’s been a slight shift in how Ortiz approaches his at-bats, increased aggressiveness isn’t inherently a bad thing. The problem, though, is that he’s swinging more often but getting less out of those swings, largely driven by his lack of impact with the bat.

A Lack of Impactful Swings

Ortiz’s batted-ball metrics didn’t fly off the page last season, but he was doing just enough damage to be a productive, consistent hitter. This year, his more aggressive approach is being magnified by a drop in quality of contact.

Ortiz’s average exit velocity of 85.5 mph is in the bottom three percent of MLB and is a 2.3 mph dip from a season ago. Likewise, his hard-hit rate of 33.3% is in the 15th percentile of MLB hitters and is down over five percent from 2024. He’s also barreling up balls at a 2.3% clip, which is one of the lowest marks in MLB.

While his bat speed distribution has overall been more consistent this season, his average bat speed has dropped, going from 73.4 mph a season ago to 72.6 mph in 2025. That might seem like a negligible change, but such a decrease certainly could play a role in such a noticeable drop-off in hit quality.

What’s more, a lot of Ortiz’s power came from pulled fly balls a season ago. Typically it’s easier for hitters to tap into their power on such swings, and that was particularly true for Ortiz in 2024. However, a clear step back in that department likely explains his diminished impact with the bat this season.

Despite putting the ball in the air over four percent more in 2025, Ortiz’s pulled-air rate went from 15% last season to just 8.8% in 2025. For comparison, the league average mark is 16.6%.

Ortiz doesn’t specialize in being a power hitter, but tapping into his pull-side power last season played a huge role in his ability to rack up extra-base hits and was a big component of his overall offensive production.

This is particularly noticeable when looking at his hits spray chart from 2024:

Via Just Baseball

Notice that all but one of Ortiz’s 11 home runs last season were pulled to left field. That’s not to say that he can’t be a productive batter without pulling the ball — his ability to rack up hits by using an all-fields approach was also a huge component of his success last season and is something he’s continued to do in 2025.

But his decreased pulled-air rate has prevented him from tapping into the level of power we saw last season.

Below is Ortiz’s hits spray chart from 2025. Notice the lack of activity on the left side of the field, specifically in terms of extra-base hits:

Via Just Baseball

Ortiz’s hits have been distributed much more to straightaway and right field this season, which, again, is part of what made him such a productive hitter a season ago. That’s something he should not get away from.

But Ortiz’s overall pull rate of 27.5%, which is the fifth-lowest pull rate in MLB and over a 10% decrease from 2024, is limiting his damage potential with the bat. After hitting 42 extra-base hits with a .159 isolated power (ISO) last year, he has just nine this season to go with an ISO of .063.

That drop-off is even more prevalent when isolating just his pulled balls. On pulled baseballs last season, Ortiz had a .283 ISO to go with a .392 wOBA. This year, those marks have dropped to .089 and .232, respectively.

Fortunately for Ortiz, it feels as if he’s starting to hit the ball a little bit harder as of late. In the end, improved quality of contact will be key for him to turn things around, but there are signs that suggest perhaps better days are ahead.

What To Expect Moving Forward?

While his quality of contact hasn’t been awe-inspiring, as was highlighted, it’s worth noting that his expected metrics do suggest that he’s been a victim of some bad batted-ball luck.

Ortiz’s actual batting average of .188 is 60 points lower than his expected batting average of .248. That number is higher than his actual batting average (.239) and expected batting average (.234) from a season ago.

While his expected slugging percentage of .327 is nothing to marvel at, it is 77 points higher than his actual slugging percentage of .250. It’s a similar story with his wOBA, which is 49 points lower than his expected wOBA.

For a quick reference, Ortiz’s difference in xwOBA and wOBA of .049 is one of the higher marks in Major League Baseball. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee future success, but it does provide some important context for a struggling hitter.

That feels particularly relevant, as Ortiz has seen a handful of hard-hit liners find an opponent’s glove as of late especially.

Back on May 24, Ortiz put together a three-hit day against the Pirates. Since that date, which is roughly where his rolling expected wOBA took a sharp turn upward, it’s felt as though he’s been on the cusp of breaking through.

Via Just Baseball

Moreover, Ortiz’s BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, sits at just .224. Not only is that 59 points lower than his mark from a season ago, but it’s tied for the fourth-lowest mark in MLB (among qualified hitters). For context, the MLB average sits at .291.

At the end of the day, expected stats only mean so much in the grand scheme of things. After all, this is a results-based industry. But context is needed when a player with as much talent and as proven of a track record as Ortiz is struggling the way that he has this season.

There’s reason to believe this prolonged cold stretch may not last much longer, and there’s more behind his .516 OPS than what meets the eye.

Closing Thoughts

Ortiz entered 2025 with a lot of pressure to perform, and perhaps some of the lofty expectations set for him were unfair to an extent. Many, including myself, anticipated that he would hit the ground running and build upon a successful rookie campaign.

But what’s transpired so far this season is an important reminder that he’s still just a second-year major leaguer. There’s already extreme pressure to produce as a young hitter at this level, and the situation forced upon Ortiz only added to that stress.

While it’s been far from an ideal start for Ortiz, there are signs that he’s trending in the right direction. The at-bats have been increasingly more competitive, and he’s squaring up the ball more as of late. As a result, he’s already racked up more multi-hit efforts in the month of June than he had in the entire month of May.

That’s a valuable confidence booster, and any sort of momentum, no matter how small, will be important in getting Ortiz back to the type of hitter fans saw a season ago.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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