When Will the Dodgers Solve Their Pitching Problem?

As the Los Angeles Dodgers (34-22) return home for a marquee World Series rematch against the New York Yankees, the buzz surrounding this weekend’s three-game set is undeniable.

These are baseball’s two most iconic franchises, both leading their divisions, with Sunday Night Baseball set to shine a national spotlight on Chavez Ravine.

Yet despite their place atop the NL West, the Dodgers’ pitching situation remains a looming concern, one that could ultimately derail a championship-caliber roster.

Talented but volatile was the name of the game for this pitching staff coming into the season, and as injuries have mounted and performances have fluctuated, as we enter June, the question hanging over this team is simple: When will the Dodgers solve their pitching problem?

Stats taken prior to play on May 29.

A Staff in Trouble

The Dodgers are 21st in team ERA (4.09), 18th in WHIP (1.29), 22nd in starters ERA (4.20), and 17th in bullpen ERA (3.98).

The rotation has issued the fourth-most walks in baseball and rank 25th in quality starts. Their bullpen, already tattered by injury, has thrown more innings (239.2) than any other in MLB, which is 10 full innings more than the next closest team.

Yes, they’ve managed to hold the line, thanks to a stacked offense. Yes, they still lead the division. But no, they can’t keep this up.

As outlined in my most recent piece discussing the Dodgers’ absurd roster depth, the injury report reads like a list of names from the Opening Day hype reel.

As of May 29, 14 pitchers reside on the Dodgers’ injured list. That includes three frontline starters — Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki — plus five of their highest-leverage bullpen arms: Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Kirby Yates, and Michael Kopech.

Snell has made just two starts. Glasnow hasn’t pitched since April 27 and only recently resumed throwing bullpen sessions. Sasaki showed electric stuff early but saw a dip in velocity and command before a shoulder issue shut him down after eight starts. He has just begun a throwing progression.

Among relievers, Kopech is nearing a return and Treinen has started a throwing program. But Phillips hasn’t picked up a baseball since early May, and manager Dave Roberts admits that his continued shutdown is “starting to get a little concerning.”

And then there’s Shohei Ohtani. It’s easy to forget he’s also part of the pitching plans and that his sidelined arm actually makes 15 on the IL. His long-anticipated debut on the mound in Dodger blue is expected shortly after the All-Star break.

Ohtani threw 22 pitches to live hitters on May 25 and “felt good,” per Roberts. He’s scheduled to face hitters again during the Yankees series.

The Current State of the Rotation

The Dodgers’ rotation right now is a strange blend. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been everything advertised, pitching to a 1.97 ERA over 11 starts. After him, the rotation is a patchwork:

• Dustin May: 4.20 ERA in 10 starts.
  
• Tony Gonsolin: 4.68 ERA over 25 innings in five starts since returning from injury.
  
• Clayton Kershaw: 4.91 ERA in three starts, just 11 innings, as he works his way back.
  
• Landon Knack: 5.22 ERA in 29.1 innings over seven appearances (five starts).
  

Outside of Yamamoto, not a single healthy starter has an ERA under 4.00. And with only 15 quality starts all season (Yamamoto has 7), the lack of length has compounded the bullpen’s overuse.

Bullpen Woes: The Tanner Scott Problem

The bullpen has been equally volatile. Tanner Scott, who signed the largest reliever contract in baseball this offseason, has a 4.62 ERA and five blown saves. In his last five outings, he’s given up nine earned runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4.2 innings.

The Dodgers were poised to sweep Cleveland on May 29 before Scott and Alex Vesia combined to allow five runs in the eighth inning. The Guardians came back from down 4-1 in the 7th to win 7-4. It was a microcosm of LA’s bullpen struggles.

To plug holes, the Dodgers have turned to a rotating cast of Luis Garcia (age 38), rookie Jack Dreyer, Anthony Banda, and Lou Trivino, the latter of whom has been one of the only pleasant surprises with a 1.35 ERA in limited work since arriving from San Francisco.

But the Dodgers have now used 27 pitchers between starters and relievers this year. That is the second most in MLB only to the Baltimore Orioles.

Help on the Farm? Not Really.

Dodgers fans might look to the farm for a savior, but help is nowhere close.

The top remaining pitching prospect, Jackson Ferris, has a 5.45 ERA in Double-A. Justin Wrobleski has been rocked to the tune of an 8.00 ERA in his nine big-league innings this year and a 4.54 ERA in Triple-A. Nick Frasso (5.66 ERA) and Eriq Swan (still in High-A) aren’t ready.

Unlike in past years, there are no Gavin Stones or Bobby Millers ready to burst through this season, at least not yet.

What Now?

This leaves the Dodgers with three options:

1. Wait for Injured Stars to Return: The biggest reinforcements will have to come from within.
   
2. Buy Low on Veterans: The recent signing of Chris Stratton, a 10-year veteran with a six-pitch mix, is a classic Dodgers flyer. He had a 7.94 ERA with the Royals but could become the next reclamation project success story.
   
3. Be Aggressive at the Deadline: With few reinforcements available in-house, it’s almost inevitable the Dodgers will make a splash before the trade deadline. They have the prospect capital and the payroll flexibility to go after one or more impact arms. 

Bottom Line

The Dodgers are a first-place team playing with a third or fourth-place pitching staff. Their offense is elite, but that lineup can’t mask blown saves and 4-to-5-inning starts forever.

Los Angeles is eyeing consecutive World Series victories, but they’ll need to get their pitching in order first, whether through health, trades, or hidden gems.