Where things stand with Daulton Varsho’s upcoming free agency

Looking deeper beneath the surface, interested free-agent suitors will also find a few concerning red flags regarding Varsho’s future production — and they aren’t limited to his offensive indicators — that’ll almost certainly impact his free-agent market.

Those parties will surely point to the veteran outfielder’s quality-of-contact decline, for example. Each of his average exit velocity (85.9 m.p.h., career-low), max exit velocity (110.4 m.p.h.), hard-hit rate (38.3 per cent) and barrel rate (6.5 per cent) is down considerably from a season ago.

As is Varsho’s average bat speed, which improved to a career-high (75.6 m.p.h.) last year, but has since fallen to a career-worst (72.9 m.p.h.) since bat tracking began in 2023. From a swing-decision standpoint, he’s also never produced a higher chase rate (36.2 per cent) than his current clip.

Some of this, particularly the quality-of-contact metrics, could be explained by the left wrist soreness/discomfort that landed Varsho on the IL last month — and is something he’s had to manage periodically for the last few seasons. But if that’s the case, why didn’t it appear in any of last season’s results?

Even more concerning is that Varsho’s defensive decline aligns with the lowest average sprint speed (27.2 feet per second) of his career — a potential culprit behind his diminished outfield reactions and bursts — and his second-worst average arm strength (77.8 m.p.h., only four ticks ahead of last season’s career-low) that hasn’t returned to pre-shoulder surgery form yet.

It’s been a weird and troubling first half on several fronts for Varsho, who, even with a pair of home runs against the Cubs and Astros late last month, is only hitting .204/.235/.388 with a 69 wRC+ in 14 games since returning from the IL. He’s struck out 15 times and only walked twice, entering Tuesday’s slate without a hit over his last 12 at-bats.

At this rate, you could make a case that Varsho might be better suited to delay free agency until after the 2027 season and stay in Toronto on a one-year, prove-it deal. Especially with an impending lockout looming, that could ultimately prove more lucrative in the long run.

When said player is represented by agent Scott Boras, though, foregoing free agency isn’t usually on the table. That is, unless their current employer, the Blue Jays in this case, makes an aggressive offer to jump the market — which probably isn’t happening here.

From Varsho’s viewpoint, he still figures to be a highly coveted target, since the upcoming class of free-agent outfielders will be relatively poor. The last two off-seasons featured superstar talent, Juan Soto two years ago and Kyle Tucker last winter. But it’ll be a much different landscape this time around, with Randy Arozarena, Ian Happ and Trent Grisham serving as Varsho’s primary competitors — perhaps Luis Robert Jr., too, if the Mets exercise the $2 million buyout in his $20 million club option for ’27.

In terms of centre-field options, Varsho likely features the highest ceiling of the bunch, even if he’s coming off a down year — another reason he’s probably headed to free agency this fall.

There is, of course, still time to boost his free-agent stock. Plenty of opinions can be changed with a second-half surge, especially if turning around his underlying indicators is a key part of it. At the same time, the better he plays, the higher the chance there’ll be of playing himself out of Toronto.

And with few internal replacement candidates in the system, it’d leave the Blue Jays incredibly thin in centre looking ahead to ’27 and beyond.