Which state will the World Series winner come from?

When it comes to team future bets in MLB, there's always not a lot of options, especially when you're in the month of August. Sure, you can bet some of your basic team futures — World Series winner, AL and NL pennant winners, division winners, etc. — but if you're looking for a bet with a minimum of +200 odds and something a little unconventional, you're finally in luck. Both DraftKings and Caesars are offering which state the World Series winner will come from.

The two favorites are to no surprise New York (+200 Caesars/+225 DK) and California (+225 Caesars/+245), followed by "Any Other State" via DraftKings (+295). DraftKings lists Toronto, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, Baltimore, Boston, Colorado, Detroit and Minnesota as teams that qualify as a win for "Any Other State". Next is Texas at (+400 DK/+430 Caesars) followed by "Any Other State" via Caesars (+800). Caesars doesn't list the teams that qualify as a win for "Any Other State."

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It's certainly tempting to bet "Any Other State" because it includes the most possible teams for one "state," but outside of Atlanta and Toronto, none of the other teams are a strong threat to win the World Series. In fact, if the season ended today, Arizona, Washington, Baltimore, Boston, Colorado and Detroit wouldn't even be in the playoffs. And the Twins are just a game ahead of the Guardians for first in the AL Central, and the Brewers are just half a game up on St. Louis for first in the NL Central. Knowing Milwaukee and Minnesota aren't from locks for the postseason, makes it even riskier to bet "Any Other State."

All of a sudden, you're down to just the Blue Jays and the Braves. Both teams are certainly capable of winning the World Series, but at +295, the value just isn't there. As for Texas, there's certainly value with the Astros being a lock for the postseason, but they've had a hard time staying healthy all season long. That's a big problem, especially with the New York Yankees standing in Houston's way. Not currently worth betting at the moment.

That leaves us with the two favorites — New York and California. The line on California was much higher prior to San Diego acquiring Josh Hader, Josh Bell and Juan Soto before the trade deadline, but still, there's a ton of value in betting California. But more than New York? It's certainly close, but probably not. 

The Yankees were just as busy as the Padres before the deadline — improving their bullpen, defense and overall position player depth — by acquiring outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Harrison Bader, starter Frankie Montas and relief pitcher Lou Trivino. Benintendi is an everyday player who can hit just about anywhere in the lineup, Bader is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, Montas is a solid No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole and Trivino can be used in multiple roles out of the bullpen. And don't forget the Yankees lead the American League in just about every offensive category and have the AL MVP front-runner in Aaron Judge playing arguably the best baseball of his career. That's why the Yankees are frontrunners to win the World Series.

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Then there's that other team in New York — the Mets. Is this finally the year the Mets go all the way? Maybe, just maybe. 

Max Scherzer is healthy and has been great in his last five starts — 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA — since coming off the IL, and Jacob deGrom looked great in his first MLB game in over a year on Tuesday — 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB and 6 K. Even more impressive, the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner touched 102 MPH, showing his velocity hasn't gone anywhere. If deGrom and Scherzer are healthy come October, no team in baseball has a better 1-2 punch than the Mets.

And remember that Mets bullpen that used to blow late leads in the past? Not this year. Closer Edwin Diaz is 23-for-26 in save opportunities, and Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo have both been solid setting Diaz up. Offensively, the Mets are doing a job getting on base — fourth-best OBP — and scoring runs — fifth most. Pete Alonso leads the National League in RBI and after an abysmal 2021 season, Francisco Lindor has rebounded in 2022. That makes the Mets legit contenders in the National League.

It's definitely close between New York and California, but the Yankees and Mets have a better chance of winning the World Series than the Dodgers and Padres. Not so much because of talent, but because the New York teams are in different leagues. That means a Subway Series, which happened in 2000, guarantees you a win. That's why betting New York to be the winning state of the World Series champion is the way to go.

The Bet: New York (+225 via DraftKings)

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