Who could the Blue Jays move if they decide to be sellers ahead of the Trade Deadline?

The Retool Approach

Justin Turner

Turner has had a rough go of things after his fantastic April. He’s now slashing .225/.304/.373 with four homers in 161 plate appearances for a 96 wRC+.

Due to his age, contract, and performance, the Blue Jays may be able to get a minor league depth prospect for Turner, unless he starts hitting like he did to start the season.

Moving Turner would also allow the Blue Jays to call up some of the younger players in Triple-A, such as Spencer Horwitz who has been an on-base machine throughout his entire minor league career. The 26-year-old has nothing to prove at the Triple-A level now.

Kevin Kiermaier

Re-signing Kevin Kiermaier was a questionable decision as the Blue Jays needed to bring in a power bat during the off-season. However, they re-signed Kiermaier early, locking themselves into the same outfield they had last season.

Don’t get me wrong, the 34-year-old’s defence is still immaculate, as he has 4 Outs Above Average and 1 Defensive Runs Saved in 217 innings at centre field this season. However, the bat is lacking as he’s slashing .229/.289/.313 for a 76 wRC+ in 91 plate appearances.

Like Turner, Kiermaier isn’t going to get a great haul, but he’s blocking prospects such as Addison Barger, Steward Berroa, and Cam Eden.

Yusei Kikuchi

Speak about a player who could get a haul, after a rough first season with the Blue Jays, Yusei Kikuchi has turned into one of their best starting pitchers.

This season, the 33-year-old left-handed pitcher is rocking a 2.64 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in 58 innings pitched, striking out 25.8% of batters with a BB% that has dropped to 5.5%. Who could’ve seen this coming after his first season with the team?

Unlike the other two players we’ve looked at so far, Kikuchi would get a good prospect or two, as every playoff team would desire a left-handed starting pitcher who can throw heat. If the Jays don’t wish to trade him or re-sign him and he can keep up the great season, Kikuchi will likely get a qualifying offer.

Yimi García

Yimi García has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, period. The 33-year-old has a 0.47 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in 19 innings pitched (18 appearances), a 35.3 K%, and an 8.8 BB%.

Relievers don’t tend to get much on the market, especially relievers with expiring contracts. However, if he continues what he’s doing over the next two months, García could easily be the best on the market at the trade deadline.

Danny Jansen

Out of any player in the “re-tool” section, the haul the Blue Jays would get for the 29-year-old catcher would likely be the most.

Starting the season off injured because he was hit in the hand again (this seems to happen a lot), Jansen is now slashing .319/.390/.653 with five home runs in 82 plate appearances for a 191 wRC+ and a 1.3 fWAR.

Sure, it’s a small sample size, but since the start of the 2022 season, Jansen is slashing .252/.333/.514 with 37 homers in 631 plate appearances for a 135 wRC+. On top of that, he plays one of the most important positions in the game and is solid defensively.

He could easily net the Blue Jays a Top 100 prospect, but ideally, the Jays should re-sign him unless they do the full rebuild.

Trevor Richards

Is there a more under-appreciated reliever that has played for the Jays in the past decade?

Trevor Richards isn’t perfect by any means, he’s not great in high-levearge, but he can eat multi innings, dominates left-handed and right-handed hitters, and strikes out a ton of batters.

In fact, since the 2021 season, his 31.1 K% ranks sixth in the league for pitchers with 200+ innings pitched, tied with Freddy Peralta and Blake Snell, and behind Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Spencer Strider, among others.

It won’t be a huge return by any means, but the Jays could get a nice high-upside lower-minor player.

Tim Mayza

During the 2023 season, Tim Mayza was one of the best relievers in baseball — not “one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball”, but one of the best overall. I’ve written about that a few times now, but the short version is that he had a 1.52 ERA and a 2.60 FIP in 53.1 innings (69 appearances, nice) while not letting inherited runners score often.

The 2024 season hasn’t been as kind to Mayza, as he’s rocking a 6.75 ERA and a 4.78 FIP in 14.2 innings pitched this season, along with an 18.6 K% (down from 24.7%) and an 11.4 BB% (up from 7%). Moreover, he’s already given up two homers, the same total he had last season.

However, the good news is that Mayza won’t become a free agent until after the 2025 season, so if the Jays don’t trade him this season, there’s always next season if he performs better. Still, he won’t get that good of a haul unless he finds his 2023 form.

Erik Swanson

The Blue Jays undoubtedly won the Teoscar Hernández trade for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko. Hernández had a rough season in 2023 with the Seattle Mariners, posting a 105 wRC+ and one of the highest K%’s in the league. On the other hand, Swanson had a 2.87 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 66.2 innings pitched, along with a 28.6 K% and an 8 BB%.

While his 2023 season was a bit of a regression from his dominant 2022 season, the 2024 season has been incredibly worrisome. So far in 11.1 innings pitched this year, Swanson has a 10.32 ERA, a 6.94 FIP, and a 16.4 K% and a 5.5 BB%.

It is worth mentioning that Swanson seemed to rush himself back into Spring Training after a very scary incident in March. Some things are bigger than baseball, hopefully he can return to form. He’s under contract with the Jays until the end of the 2025 season.

Cavan Biggio

Cavan Biggio may be traded regardless of whether the Blue Jays sell or not. The Blue Jays are a second-base factory, and slugger Orelvis Martinez is waiting in Triple-A with 11 home runs and a much-improved approach.

The 22-year-old is still not ready for the big leagues just yet (he’s not good defensively), thus Biggio remains on the roster. It’s been a rough go of things for Biggio so far, as he’s slashing .202/.330/.277 with a homer in 113 plate appearances for an 87 wRC+.

However, Biggio tends to be a very streaky hitter and will probably turn it on during the summer like he always does. He also rose through the Blue Jays system with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., so he’ll probably be around until his contract runs out after the 2025 season.

Jordan Romano

Where there is smoke, there is fire. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Baltimore Orioles are searching for a closer, and Jordan Romano is one such closer on their shortlist.

Would it suck trading Canada’s own Jordan Romano to an American League East rival? Absolutely, but this is the exact team you want to trade with, as the Orioles have an incredibly deep farm system despite winning the 2023 American League East.

Like Swanson, Romano missed the first few weeks of the season due to an injury in Spring Training, and like Swanson, it hasn’t been a great season in terms of numbers for Romano. The 31-year-old is rocking a 4.91 ERA and a 4.78 FIP in 11 innings pitched, along with a 20.4 K% (the lowest of his career) and a 6.1 BB%.

His term and track record would get a good haul for the Blue Jays though. A similar trade is when the Royals landed Henry Williams from the San Diego Padres (then their #9 prospect) for Scott Barlow.

The Full Rebuild Approach

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The question that’s been surrounding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since the end of the 2021 season is “Can he do it again.” It’s looking more and more likely that the near-MVP season was more a flash in the pan than anything.

This isn’t to say Guerrero Jr. is bad or anything. The season following his near MVP season saw him slash .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers in 706 plate appearances for a 133 wRC+. He also led the Blue Jays in home runs during the 2023 season with 26, managing a 118 wRC+.

Statistically, he’s been better than last season, slashing .279/.374/.385 with a career-high (at the moment) 12.6% and a career-worst 19.4%. There is one notable problem, though: He’s hit just four home runs in 206 plate appearances.

At some point, you must sit down and think “is this just who Guerrero Jr. is?” At this point, it’s safe to say he’s going to consistently be an all-star, but is he the generational talent scouts believed he would be when he was the game’s top prospect in 2019? Simply put, no.

So if the core that includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can’t get it done and is going to miss the playoffs in his sixth year, why wait until he hits free agency to lose him? Trading him for a playoff run plus a full season would get a great haul, especially if he just needs a change of scenery.

Put it this way: if the Blue Jays don’t trade him at this deadline, keep him until next season and either trade him at the next deadline or let him walk, that would significantly set the impending rebuild back. Of course, the Jays could always extend him, but it’s also very difficult to answer how much he should be making.

It’s a tough conversation, but this deadline gives the Blue Jays an opportunity to decide what they’ll be doing in the future.

Bo Bichette

The same argument can be made for Bo Bichette. Aside from a hot five weeks to end the season that really boosted his numbers, Bo Bichette’s 2022 was subpar. However, he was amongst the league’s best hitters in 2023, slashing .306/.339/.475 with 20 home runs in 601 plate appearances.

It’s been a 2024 season for Bichette, as he’s slashing .233/.289/.349 with three homers in 187 plate appearances for an 84 wRC+. However, it seems like he’s turning it around in recent weeks, as he’s slashing .351/.415/.541 with two homers in 45 plate appearances since May 10.

Like Guerrero Jr., if the Blue Jays decide to go down the full rebuild mode, moving Bichette at this season’s deadline would expedite the rebuilding process. However, they can’t wait until next season to move him, as he’ll lose a lot of his trade value as a rental.