Who stays and who goes once the Blue Jays activate Shane Bieber?

Tommy Nance

This is Tommy Nance’s second year working out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, and all has been well since his promotion from Triple-A Buffalo back on July 11, with 13 appearances, 17 strikeouts and only three walks across 15 innings of work thus far for the veteran right-hander.

In the interim, Nance has stepped in as the Blue Jays’ multi-inning or one-plus-inning reliever out of the bullpen, making most of his appearances in low-leverage situations for the Blue Jays. Judging by Nance’s numbers, he doesn’t warrant a demotion either, but to add Bieber to the pitching staff, unfortunately, somebody else has to go.

It might turn some heads to designate a reliever with a 1.20 ERA for assignment, but Nance is one guy the Blue Jays might afford to lose and not shake up much of the bullpen dynamic. Nance does not have options, so the Blue Jays would have to designate him for assignment, risking him being exposed to waivers.

It would be nice for the Blue Jays to keep Nance as a multi-inning relief safety net down the stretch here, but the Blue Jays should think about October and beyond here. With that in mind, it’s hard to see someone like Nance on a playoff roster, which is why he’s a candidate to be jettisoned once Bieber comes off the IL later this week.

Does Nance stay? I think so. Having a multi-inning reliever like Nance down the stretch is a big bonus.

Braydon Fisher

Who would’ve thought that last year’s trade of Cavan Biggio to the Los Angeles Dodgers would’ve amounted to anything, but the Blue Jays found a diamond in the rough with Braydon Fisher. The 25-year-old has made the fifth-most relief appearances for the Blue Jays this season with a 3.05 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate.

Similar to Little, Fisher is on a bit of a downturn in the second half. His 5.40 ERA in 13 games in the second half pales compared to his 2.22 ERA in 27 games in the first half. Another wonky thing about Fisher is that he has yet to give up an earned run on the road in 21 1/3 innings of work, but Fisher’s home ERA is 7.02.

Fisher’s strikeout rate plummeted to 16.7% in July, but it’s back up to 33.3% in August. Fisher’s curveball and slider are among the best of all Blue Jays relievers, but the lack of a plus fastball is the one missing piece to help push him over the top.

After running through the numbers, it seems like a toss-up between Little and Fisher for who might be moved off the roster for Bieber later this week. Both Little and Fisher have options, so there’s no risk in losing them to waivers, and with September call-ups right around the corner, they won’t be down in Buffalo for long.

Does Fisher stay? If the Jays stick with a five-man rotation and opt to skip a start for someone like Berrios, I think Fisher goes down to Triple-A. But for now, Fisher’s role in the bullpen should be safe.

Brendon Little

Brendon Little is one of the few holdovers from last year’s bullpen, and his peripheral numbers have been solid. A 3.00 ERA in an AL-leading 59 games has made Little a go-to option for Schneider out of the bullpen this season. But like others on this list, Little’s numbers have tailed off as of late.

Little’s knuckle curveball is one of the nastiest pitches in the majors with a 55.8% whiff rate this season, but Little is often the author of his undoing with an astronomical 15.5% walk rate, which is the second-highest in the majors among qualified relief pitchers.

Not that ERA is a barometer of success for a reliever, but Little’s first-half ERA was 2.03 in 45 games compared to a 7.45 ERA in 14 games in the second half. This may be a byproduct of seeing lots of work in relief. Monday night’s disastrous outing against the Pirates — 2 walks, a wild pitch and an errant throw to first base — may have sealed Little’s fate.

Because Little has minor league options, it might not be a bad idea to give him a bit of a breather in Triple-A when the Blue Jays have to make the official move to activate Bieber off the injured list.

Does Little stay? It’s highly likely he’s the one who goes down to Buffalo later this week.