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Why a wild September looms for American League
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge. Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

Why a wild September looms for American League

With three weeks left in the regular season, the American League is setting up for a thrilling finale. Every team in a playoff position has stumbled through the second half, making this one of the most unpredictable stretch runs in years. 

For fans of chaos, the AL is ready to deliver. Through Sunday's games, no team in a playoff spot has maintained dominance. 

In the second half, the third-place Twins (22-25) and first-place Guardians (23-25) are below .500, while the Yankees (24-21) and only three games above. Once a juggernaut, the Orioles have slipped to a .500 mark (24-24) since the All-Star break. New York and Baltimore are dueling for the AL East title.

The contending teams with the best records in the second half — the first-place Astros and second-place Royals at 27-20 — are far from safe. The Royals are trying to regain their footing after a recent seven-game losing streak, and the Astros were just swept by the Reds last week.

Even FanGraphs, which gives the Yankees and Astros the best odds of AL teams to win the World Series, may be computing a little too cleanly. These teams may have a history of success, but with aging rosters, cracks are beginning to show.

New York's Aaron Judge has played 141 games this season, and over the past 14 days, he’s slashing just .186/.340/.256 with no home runs. The likely 32-year-old MVP appears to be feeling the wear and tear. 

In Houston, Justin Verlander has seen his ERA balloon to 5.30, raising questions about whether he can still be counted on to start a playoff game. 

The Yankees and Astros may boast Hall-of-Fame talent, but age and mileage are taking their toll.

Meanwhile, the Royals and Guardians have leaned on younger stars to stay competitive. Emmanuel Clase, 26, who has a 0.69 ERA and 56 strikeouts, has been nearly untouchable this season, notching 42 saves with just three blown attempts. 

Closers are notoriously inconsistent, so as the pressure builds in October, can Clase maintain his dominance?

Meanwhile, MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. has cooled off lately, slashing .227/.292/.318 over the last seven days, but remains Kansas City's biggest hope for a deep postseason run.

Younger players tend to be more inconsistent, and without playoff experience, they might struggle under the pressure.

The Twins are hoping to get healthy before October, with two starting pitchers and four everyday players, including Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, currently on the IL.

The stakes couldn't be higher with the races as close as they are. Every game counts to the maximum degree, and teams can’t afford to rest their superstars or aging players. 

With division titles and first-round byes on the line, the schedule is loaded with key matchups. Yankees-Royals start a three-game series on Monday, and upcoming series such as Astros-Guardians (Sept. 27-29), Orioles-Twins (Sept. 27-29), and Yankees-Orioles (Sept. 24-26) will directly shape the postseason picture.

What happens next could also signal a changing of the guard in the league. A deep postseason push from the Royals or Orioles could usher in a new era, showing that youth and fresh talent are ready to take over. 

Meanwhile, a quick exit for the Yankees or Astros might trigger significant changes. With New York OF Juan Soto's free agency looming, the pressure is especially high for these aging contenders to make something happen now.

No matter what, the AL's final stretch promises nothing short of chaos. Whether it’s rising young stars or old giants fighting to stay relevant, September will determine who gets to write the next chapter of baseball history.

Colin Cerniglia

Colin Cerniglia is an Amazon bestselling author, co-host of the "2 Jocks and a Schlub" podcast from Blue Wire, and a contributor to The Charlotte Observer. With a deep passion for baseball and college football, he offers extensive knowledge and enthusiasm to his writing. Colin resides in Charlotte, NC, with his wife and two daughters

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