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It’s been well-documented by now that the Houston Astros have had a miserable start to their 2024 season. Since the rest of Major League Baseball has been praying on Houston’s downfall for nearly a decade, it’s tempting for many to use this slip out of the gates as cause to write the Astros off completely as a team that can make the MLB playoffs.
Yes, Houston is 16-25 and yes, they’ve played some miserable baseball, particularly on the pitching front. Nothing has gone according to plan and the blame falls heavily on some of the team’s most decorated veterans. But just in the past four games alone, the ‘Stros have shown enough to reverse the narrative.
It isn’t just that they’ve won three of those four, but they’ve checked a bunch of boxes that previously stood out as major concerns. For better or worse, we’re going to see the Astros right back where they’ve built a home for themselves since the mid-2010s: October baseball.
Alex Bregman lengthens the lineup
Outside of José Abreu, who has been stuck at the Astros’ complex in West Palm Beach for two weeks now trying to reinvent his approach at the plate, Alex Bregman was the most guilty party on the offense all season long. He failed to hit a home run until the 26th game of the season and carried a shocking .534 OPS into Monday’s game with the Oakland Athletics. But sometimes, all it takes is one game to change the course of a season.
Bregman crushed two home runs against the A’s in a 9-2 romp, helping Houston to its ninth win in the last 15 games. Sure, his season OPS is still just .615, far below his lofty career standards, but it was a sign that whatever funk he’s been in for the first quarter of the season could be lifting. And if Bregman starts hitting like his typical self, suddenly the Houston lineup becomes scary again.
Forget the stars for a moment, because we’ll come back to them briefly. Think about the depth of the Astros’ lineup if things are clicking one through nine. Behind Bregman, the Astros are also searching for the 2023 version of Yainer Díaz, who’s taking his lumps as he adjusts to his first full season as the starting catcher, and Chas McCormick, who is close to returning from injury. If the bottom half of the order lives up to its capability, this team will win many more games in short order.
Justin Verlander shores up the rotation
For as alarming as some of the offensive struggles have been, the Astros’ pitching has been the real culprit. The top four starters in the presumed preseason rotation have all dealt with some form of injury and the bullpen, especially $95 million man Josh Hader, has been a disaster. But something magical happened in Detroit on Sunday, something with the potential to change the Astros’ fortunes.
Longtime Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander, making just his fifth start in his age-41 season, turned back the clock with an absolute gem against his former team. Verlander went seven innings, allowed no runs on just two hits, and struck out eight. That lowered his season ERA from 4.43 to 3.38 and reminded the world that if the Astros have a sturdy foundation in their starting rotation, it changes their entire outlook.
Of course, the Astros aren’t out of the woods yet, with Cristian Javier struggling immensely in his return from injury over the weekend and Framber Valdez still trying to reestablish his usual dominant form. But those three, plus pleasant surprise standout Ronel Blanco, could form a power tandem that returns Houston to its usual place of prominence. It’s shocking to see the Astros rank 28th in team ERA and therefore, the smart money is that they won’t be there for long.
Star power wins the day
Given as terrible as the team has played as a whole, it seems like a long shot that any of the superstars on the Houston roster would be living up to their full potential. But two of them very much are in Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker, who would be locks to start the All-Star Game if it were played next week. Altuve leads all second basemen with a 152 WRC+, while Tucker leads all of baseball with 13 home runs, backing that up with an AL-best .993 OPS.
And the one name not yet mentioned in this piece is Yordan Alvarez, who hasn’t even performed close to his normal standard but still carries a 125 WRC+. This is a man still a month away from his 27th birthday with the upside to be the best all-around hitter in the game if things are going right. It’s huge for this lineup if names like Bregman and McCormick are clicking, but having the best version of Alvarez would be a total game-changer.
So although Houston’s offensive numbers still look alright from an overhead view, there’s still another gear this lineup can kick into in the coming weeks and months. They’re also fifth in team OPS and just 13th in runs, so there’s clearly an issue with process translating to results that will likely work itself out in the long run. This lineup is too good not to break out with time. And as it does, the world will see the Astros restored to their rightful place in the thick of the AL playoff hunt.
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