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Sep 17, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (53) throws against the Los Angeles Angels in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Why Brandon Woodruff is a Worthwhile Risk for the D-backs

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Jack Sommers | Last updated Nov 1, 2025 9:00 AM ET

There are a number of free agent starting pitchers that may be of interest to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Some might be better fits than others due to the cost to sign.

Arizona is probably not in the running to sign any of the higher-priced free agents this offseason, such as Framber Valdez.

But there is a pitcher with ace potential that might not be overly expensive to bring on due to his injury history. That pitcher is longtime Milwaukee Brewer Brandon Woodruff.

He has a mutual option with the Brewers for $20 million with a $10 million buyout. That mutual option is expected to be declined by one side or other.

Brandon Woodruff is a Potential Ace Starting Pitcher

Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Woodruff, who turns 33 in February, is a 6'4", 242-pound right-hander with a career 53-28 record and 3.10 ERA in 745 innings. He sports a 3.19 FIP as well, thanks to fabulous peripherals.

Woodruff has struck out 10.5 batters per nine while walking just 2.3 per nine since he made his major league debut in 2017.

To put into perspective just how good he's been, his 3.10 ERA ranks eight best in the league and his 4.58 Strikeout to walk ratio is the 10th best since 2017 (minimum 700 IP). Report Link.

Woodruff has made two All-Star teams and finished fifth in the Cy Young balloting in 2021.

Injuries Have Kept Woodruff from Winning a Cy Young Award

When he's been able to pitch, Woodruff has displayed Cy Young quality stuff and results. In fact since 2020 his numbers are even better with a 2.81 ERA and 2.98 xERA over 538 innings.

The problem has been a long-persistent track record of injuries that have kept him from posting up and throwing enough starts and innings to get Cy Young votes.

Woodruff has made seven trips to the injured list since 2017. Most recently he missed all of 2024 and the first half of 2025 due to shoulder surgery. He was spectacular after he came off the IL however, making 12 starts and going 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 2.18 xERA.

Unfortunately Woodruff would go back on the IL in late September with a strained lat in his back that was unrelated to the shoulder issue, and missed the Postseason.

Woodruff is a Worthwhile Risk

In a recent article from The Athletic, former MLB GM Jim Bowden projected that Woodruff would get a two-year, $22 million contract.

That seems a bit low, despite the obvious injury risk. If that prediction is accurate however, the D-backs should pounce on the opportunity.

If the cost were to climb as high as $30 million for two years, then the Diamondback would need to choose between offering that to Woodruff, or to Merrill Kelly, who will be entering his age 37 season this year.

Considering the D-backs limited payroll dollars to invest in free agency this year, they probably could not go higher than a $15 million average annual. If it takes more than that, Arizona should pass.