Why Red Sox will win 2024 World Series

While the American League East has been one of the best divisions in baseball over the last few years, the Boston Red Sox have not contributed to the division’s success. Boston has just four playoff appearances over the last five seasons and has finished with a losing record in the last two.

Most predictions believe that the club will finish in the bottom half of the division again, but there is still reason for hope for Beantown fans. Trevor Story is finally healthy for Boston, outfielder Masataka Yoshida looks to build on a strong debut campaign, and Rafael Devers is still an MVP candidate.

Young hitters make big leaps

After a slow start to the 2023 season, Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas made a big jump in the second half of his rookie year. Casas batted .308 with 17 homers and 45 RBI over his last 70 games last season with an OPS of .986 during this stretch. Boston will look to Casas to produce more of the same in 2024 while hoping for similar improvement from other younger hitters.

Jarren Duran is the next Red Sox hitter who could break through at Fenway Park. He posted a .910 OPS in 53 games at his home park a year ago (vs. .748 on the road) while finishing tied for second on the team with 34 doubles. Duran managed all of this while playing just 102 games for the Sox. Add in 24 stolen bases, and the 27-year-old is poised to do some damage if he stays on the roster for the full season.

Another Red Rox youngster poised for a big year could be Bobby Dalbec. Jarren Duran’s big year came at the price of Dalbec, who spent much of 2023 in Triple-A, where he hit 33 homers in 114 contests. Bobby Dalbec had 25 homers and a .792 OPS in 2021. If these guys can prove themselves consistently at the Major League level, the Red Sox ceiling gets a lot higher.

Continued improvement from starting pitchers

No pitcher who started at least 10 games for Boston in 2023 finished with an ERA lower than 4.00. Plus, Bryan Bello was the only one of these hurlers to throw at least 150 innings. Kutter Crawford was arguably the best of these pitchers. Crawford finished with an expected ERA of 3.25 (vs. an actual ERA of 4.04), putting him in the 87th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers. He held opponents to a .221 batting average while also ranking in the 75th percentile or better in whiff rate and average exit velocity. Kutter Crawford could be in for a breakout campaign in 2024.

Nick Pivetta will also be looking to prove himself. The right-hander had a 4.66 ERA in 16 starts versus just 3.06 in 55 innings of relief work. He had an ERA of 3.30 after the All-Star Break and ranked in the 93rd percentile in MLB in strikeout rate. If he can avoid hard contact (12th percentile in average exit velocity, Pivetta is also slated for improvement in 2024.

And what can Boston expect from youngster Brayan Bello? Bello dropped his ERA half-a-point to 4.24 last year and had an ERA of 2.17 during the second quarter of the season but had an ERA of 5.25 over his last 15 appearances. The 24-year-old’s changeup and sinker were worth a combined 16 runs in 2023 while his four-seamer, slider, and cutter cost him 17 runs. If the Dominican hurler can lock in on his other pitches, he will be an ace in the making and a quality starter who can lead the Red Sox back to playoff glory.