Why the Cubs Should Pump the Brakes on a Sandy Alcantara Trade

Sandy Alcantara is a name that carries a lot of weight — a Cy Young Award winner, a workhorse, and a legitimate No. 1 when he’s right. However, in 2025, he’s not right…and that should give the Chicago Cubs serious pause before offering a serious trade package for the right-hander. 

With the Marlins reportedly listening on their big right-hander, and the Cubs still clearly in the market for a frontline starter, it’s tempting to see Alcantara as a possible solution. On paper, it looks like a classic buy-low opportunity. In reality, it might be an avoidable misstep.

Let’s be clear: Alcantara’s peak form is elite. He threw over 200 innings in both 2022 and 2023 and routinely dominates with a heavy sinker and wipeout changeup that is at times unmatched. That said, he's just 10 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and his return has been bumpy to say the least. The velocity is mostly back, but the command is spotty, the feel isn’t consistent, and the results speak for themselves, particularly when he’s faced lineups better than Colorado or Pittsburgh. This is something that the Chicago Cubs cannot afford as they as a whole have struggled against teams above .500 this year. 

The Risk Isn't in the Talent — It’s in the Timeline

The Cubs don’t just need a 2026 ace. They need someone who can fortify the rotation this season, particularly for the final push and into a postseason run. After a huge swing with Tucker, you must put all your chips in. Alcantara might eventually get there, but expecting a smooth ramp-up in the second half of a TJ return season is wishful thinking.

There’s also the danger in assuming your own pitching infrastructure can "fix" a guy midseason. Sure, the Cubs have had recent success developing and refining pitchers internally, but this would be a very different kind of project, with far more risk involved. For what you'll have to give up and when in the season this will happen, you need something solid.

Cost vs. Certainty

Then there’s the dreaded cost. Even with the recent dip in performance, Alcantara will not come cheap. He’s under contract through 2027 on a team-friendly deal, and the Marlins will still expect top-tier prospect capital. That’s a tall ask for a pitcher still recovering from major surgery, particularly when the Cubs could pursue more stable arms like Mitch Keller or Luis Severino. The pitchers with either better recent health or more predictable upside would be a far more effective option than picking the sexiest name out there.

Hoyer’s front office has shown a willingness to go bold, see the Cam Smith-for-Kyle Tucker deal, but bold doesn’t mean reckless. Hoyer knows this better than anyone; it's not always the biggest name that gets you the biggest return.

 Giving up multiple prospects for a pitcher you hope rounds into form by September isn’t the kind of bet a team trying to win now can afford to make, especially when you are in the Chicago Cubs position, fighting for the division

Prioritizing Certainty Over Potential 

Momentum is building within the organization, with young arms developing and the current rotation finding its footing. That makes the Cubs’ trade deadline needs even more specific: a reliable, impact-ready starter who can deliver results now. Not someone still finding their form after major surgery.

This isn’t the time to take a flyer on upside. The Cubs need proven production down the stretch, not a wait-and-see experiment. Alcantara may reclaim his ace status someday, but that timeline doesn’t align with Chicago’s postseason window. Let another team roll those dice and take the gamble. 

Join the Conversation 

What would you do if you were Jed Hoyer? Would you take the chance on a big name like Sandy Alcantara?

Let us know, tweet us @CubbiesOnTap, and join in the conversation.