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New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Why the Mets must act following injury to All-Star ace

By Matthew Neschis | Last updated 2/22/24

The Mets new and improved starting pitching depth is already being tested.

On Thursday, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns announced ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a moderate right posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder. Two days prior, the 31-year-old complained of arm fatigue after throwing in the bullpen and subsequently underwent an MRI.

Stearns indicated Senga will likely begin the season on the injured list, only to start throwing once his symptoms subside. No timetable was given for when this progression might occur.

With Senga sidelined for an unspecified period, the rotation looks far worse than it did just several days ago. Though New York added multiple starting pitchers in the offseason — namely Luis Severino, Adrian Houser and Sean Manaea — none are capable of headlining a pitching unit.

José Quintana will most likely take Senga's spot as Opening Day starter, but the 35-year-old missed the first couple months of last season due to injury and posted a 3.57 ERA over 13 starts.

What the Mets' 2024 Opening Day rotation currently looks like:

José Quintana
Luis Severino
Sean Manaea
Adrian Houser
Tylor Megill
— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) February 22, 2024

Throughout the offseason, Stearns has preached the Mets will field a team in 2024 capable of competing for a playoff spot. Without Senga, this seems impossible for the current roster.

Luckily for the Mets, there are still a couple players on the free-agent market who could immediately bolster the rotation.

Pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned and could both fill in as the day one ace. Snell earned his second Cy Young Award last season with the Padres, while Montgomery boasted a 3.20 ERA over 32 starts and went 3-1 in six appearances during the 2023 postseason with Texas.

By adding Snell or Montgomery, New York would also be taking a lot of pressure off of Senga. During his first full season in MLB last year, 26 of his 29 starts came with a minimum of five days' rest in between. As a result, the Japanese ace was able to remain healthy and finish second in NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Signing either Snell or Montgomery would not be cheap, however. According to MLB insider Andy Martino, the Mets would have to pay a 110% luxury tax on each dollar spent to acquire Snell or Montgomery, ballooning their AAV for this season "into the $70-to-$80 million range."

Stearns insisted Senga's injury wouldn't increase the likelihood of the Mets adding a starting pitcher prior to Opening Day, but this may have been a coy answer designed to retain leverage. Steve Cohen is one of the richest owners in sports, so New York shouldn't feel inclined to pass on needed star pitchers because of their exorbitant price tags.

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