Why You Shouldn’t Expect Nick Kurtz to Sign an Extension Anytime Soon

First off, the players that Kurtz has been compared to in his rookie season, at least in terms of OPS, are Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani—the only players outside of Kurtz that had 400+ plate appearances and also held an OPS on 1.000 or higher.

As things stand right now, he'd reach free agency following the 2031 campaign at the age of 28, heading into his age 29 season. That's still on the younger end, which could net him a 10-year deal if he continues to be a Judge-esque player up to that point. It's not crazy to think that his contract could be worth at least $400 million.

But a lot of that could depend on whether he hits free agency following the '31 season. If he goes on the market a couple of years later, the market could be more lukewarm, given his age and position. Perhaps he'd be looking at eight years and $240 million instead.

Obviously we're using rough estimates here, but that's a difference of $160 million by just hitting free agency a couple of years later. The A's could still make a push to make that all worthwhile, but will they?

A's Willing to Do What it Takes?

The first obstacle is whether or not Kurtz would even be open to talking extension, given that it could cut into his future earnings.

The other big hurdle here is whether the A's would be willing to do what it takes to make an extension worth it. While the A's spent some money last winter, giving Butler a seven-year, $65.5 million extension, Rooker to a five-year, $60 million extension, and gave Luis Severino the biggest contract in franchise history at three years and $67 million.

The previous franchise record for a contract had been Eric Chavez's six-year, $66 million deal two decades ago, and all three of those "big money" deals tended to stay around that figure.

A Kurtz extension would blow those deals out of the water. Since he's already under team control for five more seasons, the A's would have to tack on two to three years in this deal, making it seven or eight seasons in Green and Gold.

Using Judge as a sample here, we're looking at roughly eight years and $160 million. That's how much the Yankees outfielder made from his second year in the league through this past season, which was his ninth year in the big leagues.

The one wrinkle here is that Kurtz will have four arbitration seasons, and that could lead to him earning even more than Judge's roughly $40 million in three seasons leading up to free agency, plus three more years at $40 million per season. The other two years for Kurtz would be the big-league minimum.

An extension could also come in a little lower than that figure, given that Judge is a terrific outfielder, and Kurtz is a first baseman.

While the A's have shown that they're willing to spend more than they were previously, they are still one of just two teams to not hand out a $100 million contract, with the Chicago White Sox being the other club. That's going to be a question that will linger until it happens, but Kurtz would certainly be the player to break the bank for.

Labor Impact

One factor that could make a potential deal worthwhile could be the upcoming CBA negotiations, with ownership expected to push hard for a salary cap, and potentially leading to lost games in 2027.

While Kurtz will still be far enough away from free agency to worry about that impact immediately, perhaps he is advised by his agent to cash in while he can because a cap is coming and there will be less money to go around.

That does seem like odd advice, given the rookie campaign he just put up, but the labor negotiations are a big unknown at the moment, and getting your bag while you can isn't necessarily the worst way to go.

There was only one first baseman in all of baseball that put up more fWAR that Kurtz in 2025, and that was Atlanta's Matt Olson, who finished with 4.7 in 162 games played compared to Kurtz's 4.6 in 117. In a per-game basis, Kurtz was far and away the best first baseman in baseball in his rookie season.

He was also a top-25 player (by WAR) in MLB, despite not playing a full season. It's hard to imagine him not at least entertaining free agency as early as possible to cash in, unless the A's come with a serious offer that's more than double the biggest contract in franchise history, or there are serious concerns about the upcoming CBA negotiations.