Will Brian Cashman Really Let The Mets Steal Tarik Skubal

Why Tarik Skubal is on the board at all

Skubal is being talked about as one of the two best pitchers alive right now, mentioned in the same breath as Paul Skenes. He’s 28, he’s left-handed, he’s already got the hardware, and somehow he’s still getting better.

Multiple outlets have reported that the Detroit Tigers and Skubal opened extension talks and wound up more than $250 million apart. In some versions, the gap is closer to $300 million when you line up Scott Boras’ ask against what ownership’s stomach can handle. He’s a year from free agency. That is exactly how Boras likes it.

The Tigers don’t want to lose an in-his-prime ace for nothing. So his name is out there. Quietly, but not that quietly.

The two paths if Brian Cashman actually dials Detroit

If the Yankees get serious, there are only two honest plays.

Option one: the rental.

You pay the monster prospect price for one year of Skubal, drop him in front of Fried, and dare the rest of the league to beat you before Cole and Rodón show up. You accept the risk he walks next winter. That’s the “flags fly forever” path, and let’s not pretend Yankee fans haven’t justified worse.

Option two: trade-and-extend.

You meet Detroit’s price and then immediately tack on a megadeal that keeps Skubal in pinstripes well into the 2030s as Cole’s co-ace and eventual successor. That means giving Boras “best pitcher in baseball, paid like it” money.

If you’re looking for a floor, start with Max Fried. Fried’s Yankees deal is eight years, $218 million, with a $20 million signing bonus paid in two chunks and just $12 million in base salary the first two seasons before it jumps to $29 million a year from 2027–32. The Yankees structured that on purpose: cheap now, expensive later. Skubal would cost more than that, for longer.

This is only scary for ownership if you believe they’re suddenly shy about top-of-market pitching money. History says they are not.

The price tag and why it hurts

Detroit is not just going to hand over an ace because the extension talks went sideways. If you call the Tigers, the first name they ask for is likely Spencer Jones — the 6-foot-7 center fielder with Judge energy who just spent the year turning Triple-A into his personal launch monitor — or shortstop George Lombard Jr. (whose dad, just to make this fun, is the Tigers’ bench coach).

After that, you start stacking arms. Cam Schlittler just became a postseason folk hero with 100 mph, zero walks and 12 strikeouts in eight scoreless innings to knock out Boston in a win-or-go-home Wild Card game. That exact line had literally never happened before in postseason history. Detroit will ask about him too. They should. That’s what this level costs.

So here’s the question Yankee fans never like answering out loud: would you trade the next “lefty Judge” and the October golden child just to rent Skubal for one year? Or even to rent him and then try to hand him $400 million-plus?

Can the Yankees actually afford Skubal?

Short version: yes.

The Yankees already live over the luxury tax. 

They just gave Fried a record-setting deal for a lefty starter. They’re already paying Judge around $40 million per year, Cole at $36 million per year on what’s effectively four years and $144 million after the opt-out dance, Rodón in the mid-$20 millions. This is not a small-market pity act.

And a lot of the really heavy money either fades or softens right when Fried’s number spikes in 2027 and beyond. By 2027, Giancarlo Stanton’s deal is deep into the “Marlins are subsidizing this” zone, and some of the short-term vets (Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, etc.) are off the books. Internal estimates put the Yankees’ projected 2026 luxury-tax number around $168 million in guaranteed deals before arbitration — well under where they just finished, and that’s with Judge, Cole, Fried, Rodón and Stanton still on it.

So no, this isn’t “can Hal Steinbrenner afford another $30M+ arm?” He can. It’s “will they carry multiple ace contracts into the back half of Judge’s 30s, knowing Cole is rehabbing and Skubal has already carried big workloads?”

The Mets problem

Here’s the part Yankee fans won’t enjoy.

If the Tigers listen on Tarik Skubal this winter, expect the Mets to be involved and maybe the most motivated team in the sport.” That is not subtle.

Steve Cohen does not care about your tax brackets. The Mets can headline an offer with multiple top arms and a blue-chip position player and then just pay the man. If the Yankees slow-play this and the Mets plant the best pitcher in baseball seven stops away on the 7 train, Cashman’s going to need witness protection.

So…do they do this?

Detroit doesn’t have to trade Skubal. They can run it back and dare him to walk. That’s their problem.

The Yankees’ problem is different: do they treat this like a real Judge/Cole window, or do they do the usual thing where they talk big, bet on “internal depth,” and hope everyone’s elbow behaves until June?

If the Tigers crack the door, Brian Cashman doesn’t really get to play cool. Either you go all the way in — prospects, money, the whole thing — or you watch the Mets do it first.