Will Cincinnati Reds Mainstay Take Step Back in 2026?

The Cincinnati Reds had a very mid-year at the plate. Only a few players posted above-average years at the dish, with no one really going off. TJ Friedl is the captain of the outfield and had a decent year getting on base.

This is part of the “Will he mash?” series of posts. We will look at the key contributors to the Reds in 2025 and answer the question of if they will be a key contributor to the lineup next year.

I really like Friedl and his brand of baseball. He plays hard, has a great mind for the game, and a great eye at the plate. That being said, Friedl WILL NOT mash in 2026.

Friedl has become a very reliable on-base guy. He has a keen eye that led the team in walks (81) and on-base percentage (.364) for guys who played more than 50 games.

The problem is that the power just has not returned. In 2023, he had a slugging percentage of .467 in 138 games. That cratered to .380 as he dealt with injuries in 2024 and actually declined further to .378 this past year. It is possible he is still getting over some injuries, but he is a guy who will play hurt more often than not.

Friedl saw a slight jump to .409 slugging for the month of September, but that was more of a combination of less at-bats and a similar number of extra base hits when compared to the other months of 2025.

When looking at the peripherals, his plate discipline stands out. He is in the top 2% of all hitters when it comes to not chasing pitches out of the zone. He’s also in the top-25% of the league in whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate.

However, his quality of contact is a big problem. Friedl is in the bottom 10% of the league in average exit velocity, bottom 12% in hard hit rate, and bottom 19% in bat speed. He does have a shorter-than-average swing path to the ball, which makes up for the slow swing speed, but will mean he remains a contact-first hitter.

There is nothing wrong with being the best on-base guy in the lineup. When pitchers begin to realize that they can overpower him by throwing fastballs away, though, Friedl will have to adapt to remain a viable bat.

I do not believe TJ Friedl will mash in 2026.