Will Regression Eventually Come for Cubs Breakout Star?

Contrary to popular belief, there are three things in life that are certain: death, taxes and regression to the mean.

For the Chicago Cubs, the latter of the three is going to hit like a Mack truck once it comes for their breakout outfielder.

This has been seen throughout the last two years.

After posting numbers unheard of before in MLB and winning the National League MVP, the Atlanta Braves' own superstar outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., faced regression to the mean before going down with a season-ending injury.

In 2023, Acuna batted .337/.416/.596 with 41 home runs, 103 RBI, 73 stolen bases and a 171 OPS+. Last year, he batted just .250/.351/.365 with four home runs, 15 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a 101 OPS+ in 49 games with no signs of his 2023 form returning.

The same could be true for Pete Crow-Armstrong.

To be fair, 2023 was Acuna's sixth season in MLB while this year is only Crow-Armstrong's third, just his second full campaign. Crow-Armstrong is also 23, so more development is to be expected, but this rapid of a pace may need people to temper their expectations a bit.

Last year, the outfielder batted .237/.286/.384 with 10 home runs, 47 RBI and an 87 OPS+ across 410 plate appearances in 123 games. To this point in 2025, he has batted .271/.306/.550 with nine home runs, 26 RBI and a 138 OPS+ across 150 plate appearances in 36 games.

The drastic increase in home run rate does not even need to be pointed out, but for those wondering, it went from 2.4% in 2024 to 6.0% in 2025.

Major League average during Crow-Armstrong's tenure is 3.1%.

It has not been just home runs, but doubles, too, that have increased their rate.

After tallying just 13 two-base hits in 2024, the outfielder has 10 already this season.

The power increase has seen his ISO surge from .148 to .279 year over year, a drastic increase of nearly 100%.

While Pete Crow-Armstrong is certainly an exciting player to watch, this increase in production may not be sustainable.

Yes, his BABIP is .290 this season compared to the .292 figure he had last year and .286 for his career, but the nine home runs in 150 plate appearances play a factor in that, as well.

Regression to the mean comes for everyone, and Crow-Armstrong's turn will come at some point.

For now, the Cubs need to ride the momentum as far as it will take them.

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