Will Royals Trade Seth Lugo? Insider's Latest Update On All-Star's Availability

Predictably, Seth Lugo was brilliant again on Thursday night.

With his Kansas City Royals desperately needing a win, Lugo threw 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a 3-2 win over the Seattle Mariners, the team holding the American League's final Wild Card spot at the moment. Lugo now owns a 2.65 ERA, but the 41-47 Royals are still 4 1/2 games out of the playoffs.

Unless the Royals go on a heater, Lugo's future is going to be the hot topic surrounding the team for the next few weeks. He's almost certain to opt out of his $15 million salary in 2026, so he's a top trade candidate if Kansas City is ready to wave the white flag on playoff contention.

The likelihood of a trade is almost impossible to project, especially given how mercurial the Royals have been on the field. But Jon Heyman of the New York Post gave an update on his trade probability in comparison to some of the other star pitchers around the game.

"With the odds of a trade for Paul Skenes, Chris Sale and Freddy Peralta ranging from slim (Peralta) to practically none (Skenes and Sale), the best pitchers to hit the market could be Seth Lugo and Joe Ryan. And realistically, neither of them is all that likely to be out there, either," Heyman wrote.

"The Royals are thinking buy now. But Lugo probably has a better chance to be traded than Ryan as Lugo has an opt out, making him a likely free agent."

So it sounds like Lugo, if he's traded, is likely to be the best pitcher moved. But Heyman also provides hope to Royals fans who are rooting for the front office to stand their ground and keep Lugo for the rest of the season.

Fangraphs currently gives the Royals a 9.3 percent chance at the playoffs. But that admittedly pessimistic projection means they're still in the hunt, and it's probably have to going to get even worse for Lugo to get dealt.

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