Will the Orioles bring back Tomoyuki Sugano next year?

The decision to make on Sugano, however, is not quite as simple as it seems.

Why the Orioles should keep Sugano

Sugano was one of the most interesting "rookies" across baseball in 2025 because he both fits and defies the term. Having pitched 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants before crossing from the Eastern Hemisphere to the West, the righty has significant pitching experience but was also acclimating himself to brand new and stronger competition. The whole season was a learning experience for an otherwise seasoned veteran, so his true ceiling in MLB is still unknown.

On the other hand, Sugano has a high floor and was consistently available to pitch when his turn in the rotation arrived. Outside of a minor injury scare on September 7 when he took a hard grounder off his foot, he's been impressively durable. After Saturday's game, Sugano has made 29 starts and pitched 152.2 innings with one more start to make this year.

Baltimore's rotation has lacked depth this year due to both injuries and poor performances, and this proved to be the team's downfall. If the Orioles want to avoid making the same mistake, then bringing Sugano back may not be a bad idea, given his durability.

Why the Orioles should let Sugano walk

Despite this availability and veteran experience, Sugano is clearly past his prime as a pitcher even with a year of adapting to greater competition under his belt. Entering Saturday's game against the New York Yankees, the righty had a 4.39 ERA and 5.09 FIP; although he has good control (36 walks), his lack of strikeout stuff (only 103 punchouts) has led to a vulnerability to giving up home runs (28 long balls before Saturday) and hits in general (.276 opposing batting average).

Sugano's start against the Yankees did him no favors. He retired the first two batters of the game but after allowing two hits, he gave up a three-run home run to Giancarlo Stanton that quickly put the Orioles into a big hole. Another home run to Aaron Judge increased Sugano's homer tally to 30 (tied for the third most in MLB), and after the third inning, he was finished. The poor outing increased his ERA to 4.54 and his FIP to an alarming 5.22.

There was a period where it seemed like Sugano was tipping his pitches, but at this point, his ERA is the highest it has been all season. Granted, he is a fourth or fifth starter, but it doesn't appear that he will become much beyond that, especially given his age.

In the end, while it is fair for the Orioles to consider bringing Sugano back, the right move would be to let him walk. In addition to getting Kyle Bradish back, the Orioles also have Tyler Wells back and will hopefully have Grayson Rodriguez ready to pitch in 2026, both of whom not only have high upside but can comfortably fill in as depth behind ace starters like Rogers and Bradish. Baltimore still needs to look for another starter this offseason, but getting an ace would be preferable to getting a lower-end starter like Sugano.