Will Virginia Baseball Make the NCAA Tournament?

After bowing out of the ACC Tournament in their first game on Wednesday in a disappointing loss against Boston College, the future of Virginia Baseball's season now rests in the hands of the NCAA selection committee.

The selection show next Monday will round out the field of 64 teams for the 2025 Division 1 Baseball Tournament. With 29 automatic bids allotted to conference champions across the nation, Virginia now awaits their fortune as to whether or not they receive one of the remaining 35 at large bids. As UVA sits on the bubble of the tournament, the question lingers– will the 'Hoos season continue?

Virginia deserves a bid into the tournament. The latest D1Baseball projections cite Virginia as one of the last four teams in and slated to play in the regional tournament hosted by No. 8 ranked Oregon.

The Cavaliers finished their regular season with a 32-18 overall record and a 16-11 record across tough ACC play. The 'Hoos played their best baseball at the end of the season, going 12-2 over their final fourteen games including a series win over the best team in the conference, Georgia Tech, a series win over Virginia Tech, and a three-game sweep versus the University of Miami.

While playing their winningest baseball in the back half of the season serves as a positive sign, Virginia's entire fifty games of work will be evaluated come the selection show on Monday. After their loss to Boston College this week, here is where Virginia stands across three key metrics for team evaluation: 60th in RPI, 32nd in DSR, and 46th in the KPI. Given the importance of these three highly referenced statistics, how can they vary so differently and what does that mean for Virginia baseball?

With just 35 at large bids available for a 64 team tournament, the glaring ranking here for Virginia baseball fans is UVA's 60th spot in the RPI (Rating Percentage Index). Though this is quite low for a team hoping to sneak into the tournament, the RPI's statistical flaws for evaluating baseball teams should push the selection committee to consider UVA's strength in the DSR and KPI.

The RPI is calculated from three factors: a team's winning percentage, their opponents' winning percentage, and their opponents' oppenents' winning percentage. It's an overall measure of a team's success given their own record and the strength of their opponents, but it's also one that fails to provide an accurate account of a team's successes.

It's formula places a lofty 75% weight on the strength of a team's opponents' records (50% opponent's win %, 25% opponents' opponents' win %). The index also does not include any weight on margin of victory or loss, meaning it sees a 3-2 win as equivalent to a mercy rule. This means that the RPI can actually punish team's for dominating weaker opponents while rewarding team's who lose to strong competition.

This is uniquely relevant to UVA. While wins over weaker opponents shouldn't be the factor that pushes Virginia to the regional in Oregon, UVA dominated against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents but still found their RPI index decreasing despite these victories. Their record against Q1/Q2 opponents is certainly not stellar at 10-13, but Virginia fans can only hope the selection committee will lean away from the RPI towards a more holistic ranking. The DSR, which which actually includes margins of victory and defeat in it's calculations, has Virginia sitting comfortably on the right side of the bubble at #32.

Head Coach Brian O'Connor made his belief that his squad deserves a spot in this year's tournament clear following the 'Hoos exit from the conference tournament, emphasizing the 'Hoos 16-11 record across play in a strong ACC conference while ruminating on what a missed tournament would mean from the selection committee. O'Connor said "if we're not selected to the NCAA tournament, the committee is, in my opinion, sending a message that we would have had to have won the regular season in the ACC." A quick statistic to back O'Connor's sentiment around Virginia's success in conference this year; no ACC team that won five or more games above .500 has missed the NCAA Tournament since 1994.

While the 2025 Virginia Cavaliers certainly didn't have a season for the ages as they got off to a slow start, and certainly didn't help their case with an early loss in the ACC tournament to a mediocre Boston College team on Tuesday, it's clear that a missed bid would come as a surprise in Monday's selection show for the 'Hoos.

The NCAA Baseball Tournament Selection Show is scheduled for Monday, May 26th at 12 PM ET on ESPN2.