With the eighth overall pick, the Blue Jays could select… Billy Carlson?

The Toronto Blue Jays’ most recent first-round high school pick was a good one.

In the 2023 draft, the Blue Jays selected prep shortstop Arjun Nimmala with the 20th overall pick. He’s quickly become their top prospect and should reach Double-A before the end of the season, not too shabby for a 19-year-old.

One player who could be available for the Blue Jays when they pick eighth overall is Billy Carlson, a shortstop who attended Corona High School in Corona, California. 

In this draft profile, we’ll look at what the 18-year-old shortstop has to offer. If you missed the last article, we looked at Liam Doyle, a left-handed pitcher who pitched for the University of Tennessee, the same school Carlson is committed to.

Billy Carlson’s bio

Carlson’s primary position is shortstop, and the 18-year-old stands at 6’1”, 185 lbs. He’s an older high school player, as he’s set to turn 19 years old a few weeks after the 2025 draft.

Although the Blue Jays have never drafted a player from Corona High School, they have drafted plenty of high schoolers from the state. In total, the Jays have selected 170 players from California High Schools, with only 62 of them signing with the Jays.

Six different players were drafted in the first round, including second overall picks Garry Harris and Lloyd Moseby. Jay Schroeder was selected third overall, and Matt Stak was selected ninth overall. Other notable players selected by the Jays out of California high schools are Shawn Green, Davis Wells, Aaron Sanchez, and Jake Marisnick.

The Blue Jays have never drafted a player from Corona High School, but they have had a player in their farm system attend the high school. Samad Taylor spent parts of six seasons in the Jays’ organization after a trade with the Cleveland Guardians. Taylor was involved in the Whit Merrifield trade before the 2022 trade deadline.

Carlson is one of four Corona High School players who rank on MLB Pipeline’s Top 200 draft-eligible prospect list. The shortstop ranks as their seventh-best draft prospect, with right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez ranking second, third baseman Brady Ebel ranking 61st, and right-handed pitcher/outfielder Ethin Bingaman ranking 145th.

Billy Carlson’s tools

Unlike the four collegiate players we’ve looked at, high school stats are all but meaningless because any player who is about to be drafted tends to put up MLB Road to the Show numbers. Let’s take a look at his MLB Pipeline scouting report.

The right-handed batting shortstop does have an interesting profile, as he’s almost guaranteed to stick at the position in his professional career. The glove is where Carlson sticks out, as he has incredible arm strength and is a terrific fielder at one of the hardest positions in the sport.

It doesn’t mean he’s bad with the twig, far from it. There’s potential for Carlson to become an above-average power hitter. As for his hit tool, it’s hit or miss, depending on the scout. He has a line drive approach, which screams “future lead off hitter” to me.

Billy Carlson’s grades

Anytime you see a 70 grade on a prospect, you know they have a ton of potential. It just so happens that Carlson is a strong defender at such a young age. Let’s take a look at Carlson’s grades according to MLB Pipeline.

Will the Blue Jays select Billy Carlson?

In the draft, it’s ideal to select the best player available. When the Blue Jays select eighth overall, Carlson may be the best player available. Sure, the Jays already have a highly ranked shortstop in Arjun Nimmala, but there’s a chance that the 19-year-old eventually moves to third base as he fills out his frame.

There’s always risk when drafting prep players, but Carlson’s defence alone gives him a high floor. If the bat comes along as well, we’re looking at a player who could be a perennial All-Star. There’s a lot to like in the 18-year-old.