Yankees Outfield’s $22 Million Question Starts Now

Highlights:

• The qualifying offer sits at $22.025 million for one year.
  
• Trent Grisham finally paired patience with real damage at the plate.
  
  
• If he declines, the Yankees get a late comp pick and keep flexibility.
  

With the World Series scheduled to start in just a few days, the clock is about to start on qualifying offers. For the New York Yankees, that means a tough decision. 

Their most interesting position-player call is in center. Trent Grisham just put up the version the club always hoped for: power you can feel, walks that don’t go away, and enough stability to write his name in ink. Then October arrived, the bat cooled, and some of the center field bounce looked a half-step light. Classic Yankees problem: do you buy one more year, or do you take the pick and shop?

The Question In Plain English

A qualifying offer isn’t a commitment ceremony. It’s one season at $22.025 million. If he declines, you pocket a draft pick and stay nimble. If he accepts, your tax bill swells and he can’t be moved without consent until mid June.

That’s the math, minus the ripple effects.

The Case For Yes

Grisham didn’t fake it.

The quality-of-contact jump showed up all summer. Fewer emergency swings, more balls launched on purpose, and the walk rate stayed sturdy. That’s how you land in the two-to-three win neighborhood even when the batting average isn’t pretty. Also, the market helps you. It’s a thin center field class. A 29-year-old with pop, patience, and playable defense is going to find multi-year money. Make the offer, let the market do the work, and plan on a decline.

The Case For No

If he says yes, the number isn't just a number.

The luxury tax turns $22 million into a larger real cost, and early-season flexibility gets tight. The glove is the other worry. Grisham’s calling card has been plus defense in center; this year looked closer to neutral or worse. If that’s trend, not noise, you’re paying center field money for a corner profile. O

ctober didn’t help the optics either. Pitchers shrunk the zone, swing decisions followed, and the line went light. It's a small sample size but the kind owners remember when they have to pull out the checkbook.

What Actually Changed In 2025

He got to his A swing more often and punished the middle third of the strike zone. He had a better launch, better barrels with the same patience. The gains weren’t built on cheap shots. He looked like a hitter who trusted his plan and hammered mistakes.

In 143 games, Grisham slashed .235/.348/.464 with a .811 OPS, 34 home runs and 74 RBI. The batted-ball file says it wasn’t a mirage with a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 46.4% hard-hit, 14.2% barrel rate, with a quality-of-contact gap that showed up in .353 wOBA vs. .377 xwOBA. Basically, he hit the ball hard, often, and probably left a little on the table.

That usually is not a fluke.

Can It Hold

The underlying stats indicate that Grisham is more likely to maintain it than lose it.

Barrels and flight age better than batting average luck, and the walk skill do. Two watch items though are his defense and the home run rate.

If the glove doesn’t bounce back toward even and the homers settle a tier lower, then the Yankees are paying real money for a corner-ish bat. If the glove steadies and most of the thump sticks, one year at this number is fine on a Yankees payroll.

October Check-In

The playoffs, however, were a He didn’t bring the regular-season swing into the tournament. Better plans beat him inside the zone and just off it. That’s a footnote until it repeats, but it sits in the file when you’re writing checks.

The lights came up and Grisham went dim.

In sevengames, he slashed .138/.219/.207, 3 BB, 10 strikeouts and a walk.

It is a small sample, sure, but pitchers squeezed him just off the edges and he never cashed in. With teams honing in on being careful with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, Grisham needed to step up.

And he did not.

It’s the kind of October box score that sticks to a front office whiteboard when they start pricing risk.